Martha Dowding
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Sub-$65/bbl
Aramco says oil glut overstated; US refiners buy Venezuelan crude; tanker rates lift Russian trade.
Published: January 22, 2026
Written by:
Martha Dowding
4 page report
The Mar’26 Brent crude futures contract has been supported at the low $64/bbl level this morning, before trading up to $64.50/bbl by 18:30 SGT (10:30 GMT). The Mar’26 Brent crude futures contract failed to reach $65.40/bbl in the early morning and has since dropped to $64.70/bbl at 10.20 GMT (time of writing)...
Turkey plans to sign an agreement with Chevron next month for joint oil and gas exploration, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said. He said that partnerships with international energy companies will continue and expressed hope that a specific exploration project announcement will follow later in 2026. The deal reflects Turkey’s ongoing efforts to develop its energy resources through collaboration with major global firms. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said at Davos that predictions of a global oil glut are “seriously exaggerated,” citing strong demand growth and low global oil stocks. He noted that demand remains robust in emerging economies, China, and the US, with total demand reaching record levels and continuing to rise. Nasser also warned that spare oil production capacity is below the minimum needed to prevent price spikes, and that further OPEC+ production increases could further reduce this capacity. Valero Energy and Phillips 66 purchased Venezuelan crude oil cargoes from independent trading houses, marking the first transactions since Washington authorised the sale of up to 50 mb of Venezuela’s stranded reserves. The deals were facilitated by Vitol, which, along with Trafigura, secured special US licenses to market Venezuelan crude following a US–Caracas agreement to clear stored oil after Maduro’s ouster. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the program has already generated about $500 million, with prices realised roughly 30% higher than under the previous administration as US refiners reintegrate heavy Venezuelan grades. Newer tankers are being used to transport Russian oil due to sharply higher freight rates. Rates surged after the US and EU blacklisted hundreds of tankers linked to the trade. At least two Greek companies have entered the market despite sanctions risks. Finally, the front-month (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.68/bbl and $1.70/bbl, respectively.
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