Brent supported amid concerns of force majeure in Libya

Operations were suspended at three oilfields in Libya after members of the Petroleum Facilities Guards, tasked with protecting Libya's energy infrastructure, closed the valve on the Al-Hamada–Zawiya crude loading pipeline in western Libya. Libya's NOC said it may declare force majeure if this valve remains closed or if other fields are subjected to similar shutdowns. In other news, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that oil should be flowing through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline within days. ADNOC has bought millions of barrels of discounted crude from Iraq's state-owned SOMO (state oil marketing organisation), as per Reuters. The US has marked another day of record-high diesel prices, according to AAA. GasBuddy further highlighted record diesel prices in Michigan at $6.27/gal, Indiana at $6.22/gal, Wisconsin at $6.11/gal and Illinois at $6.22/gal. Six Russian plants- the Omsk refinery, Kirishi, Taneco, Volgograd refinery, NORSI and Perm- account for 50% of the country's total diesel exports; of these, half are disrupted, with Kirishi shut and Volgograd and NORSI running at 25% capacity, as per Reuters. According to the IEA, one Russian refinery has been hit every three days from Jan-Aug 2026. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $5.22/bbl and $20.85/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon, in Dated Brent, we saw better buying pre-window before Oct'26 sold off again post-window despite strong physical bids. Pre-window, we saw 15-18 Sep/Cal Oct'26 lifted at $17.00/bbl and $19.00/bbl-23 Oct/Cal Nov'26 lifted $4.75/bbl. In the physical window, we saw a trade and major bidding across grades, with a major buying a Midland cargo, whilst trades hit 2 other Midland cargo bids, pushing up the implied physical diff to around $13.00/bbl. In the paper window, a major and a trade house were on the buy side of $21.00/bbl-25 Sep'26 CFD and $28.00/bbl-2 Oct'26 CFD; however, these were hit down by majors and market makers. Also saw majors on the buy side on 5-9 Oct'26 CFD. Post-window, we saw buying of $12.00/bbl-16 Oct/Cal Oct'26.

This afternoon, Brent/Dubai was very choppy again; having traded up to -$1.50/bbl in Oct'26, we came back down to -$2.15/bbl. There was continued Chinese selling of Oct'26 and Nov'26 Brent/Dubai, outright and through cross-month. There was some trade house profit-taking in the Oct'26, buying around -$2.00/bbl. The Oct/Nov'26 spread largely recovered its move lower, trading back up to $7.00/bbl. There was both interest to buy and sell the Oct/Nov'26 spread around there. Quarterlies continued to be offered by products; Q1'27 was offered around $1.40/bbl. The Brent/Dubai boxes were very quiet, with no more interest in selling Nov'26 through Jan'27 Brent/Dubai boxes.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5 spreads had limited liquidity this afternoon, with Oct/Nov'26 trading up from $47.00/mt to $48.00/mt before selling down to$46.75/mt post window; Nov/Dec'26 consistently traded at $38.50/mt. Chinese arbers were bidding Oct'26 Sing crack; it traded up from $22.45/bbl to $22.85/bbl pre-window and then traded around $22.60/bbl in the window. Euro 0.5 spreads were thin again this afternoon, O0ct/Nov'26 traded up from $16.00/mt to $17.00/mt in limited volume, while the Oct'26 crack traded between $1.70/bbl and $1.90/bbl.

In HSFO, Sing 380 spreads traded higher this afternoon, with Oct/Nov'26 getting bid up from $36.00/mt to $38.50/mt; Nov/Dec'26 traded around $27.00/mt. Oct'26 380 crack was range-bound, trading between -$2.05/bbl and -$2.15/bbl. Barge spread liquidity was thin this afternoon; Oct/Nov'26 traded between $16.75/mt and $17.00/mt, while the Oct'26 crack saw decent volume traded on screen, although price action was muted, trading between -$13.70/bbl and -$13.60/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were well bid at the front, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $10.00/bbl up to $11.10/bbl last. Oct'26 E/W sold off, trading from -$68.00/mt down to -$72.00/mt, with EFS selling seen. Regrade saw buying in the front, with Nov'26 trading up to $1.60/bbl, while Q1'27 was lifted to $4.60/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied into the window, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $86.00/mt up to $90.00/mt, while Nov'26 cracks rallied from $85.00/bbl up to $89.00/bbl. European jet diffs were also a roofer, with Oct'26 trading from $130.00/mt up to $146.00/mt, while Q1'27 traded up to $150.00/mt.

Gasoline was stronger this afternoon overall. RBBRs were relatively range-bound, trading at $27.60/bbl at the end of the window. Arbs came off from -5.40c/gal to -6.00c/gal in Oct'26 and saw good sell-side interest in the Jan'27 + Feb'27 strip down to 16.00c/gal. EBOB cracks rallied from $34.40/bbl to $35.50/bbl in Oct'26, and Q1'27 saw sell-side interest at $21.40/bbl. Spreads also went bid, with Oct/Nov'26 trading up from $99.00/mt to $107.50/mt. E/W was stable around -$7.00/bbl, as 92 cracks selling eased, trading up to $27.90/bbl in Oct'26 and Oct/Nov'26 was valued at $11.00/bbl.

This afternoon, naphtha was softer overall, with MOC balanced and spreads pricing higher earlier on crude before turning offered into the window. NWE naphtha cracks remained under pressure versus the morning, with Oct'26 recovering from the morning weakness before selling off to -$5.90/bbl and ending slightly off the lows around -$5.70/bbl, while Q1'27 held around -$5.15/bbl; spreads were illiquid and offered, with Oct/Nov'26 around $31.50/mt and Oct/Dec'26 trading at $63.00/mt. E/W stayed supported by passive buying in the front, with Oct'26 firm around $62.00/mt, while Q1'27 eased slightly to $47.00/mt; boxes saw the main interest in the window, with Oct/Nov'26 around $1.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 at $6.75/mt, Jan/Feb'27 at $4.25/mt and Apr/Jun'27 at $4.25/mt. MOPJ was largely illiquid on cracks, with Oct'26 trading up to $1.45/bbl before moving higher on flat price buying, while Cal 27 traded at -$2.80/bbl earlier; spreads were offered but broadly steady versus the morning, with Oct/Nov'26 around $33.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $33.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 around $30.00/mt.

This afternoon is NGLs, FEI was weaker compared to the morning’s trading levels, and as a result we saw spreads come off slightly, and LST/FEI find some strength again. Oct/Nov'26 FEI traded back down to $40.00/mt, having reached a high of $41.50/mt in the morning, and Nov/Dec'26 returned to its opening level of $36.50/mt. Oct'26 LST/FEI was bid up to -$435.00/mt from -$441.00/mt, and the Dec/Jan'27 arb roll was sold at -$25.00/mt. There was also an importer buying the Oct'26 ENT/FEI arb at -$451.00/mt, which eventually strengthened to close the afternoon at -$447.00/mt. Deferred FEI/MOPJ interest returned in the afternoon, with Q1'27 trading at -$49.00/mt and -$50.00/mt, before rallying back to close the afternoon printing at -$47.00/mt. Pronap is also trading in deferred, with buy-side interest in Q1'27, trading at -$150.00/mt, and Q426 was lifted at -$170.00/mt. Mixed interest in LST spreads this afternoon, with Oct/Dec'26 initially sold at 1.25c/gal before strengthening to trade at 1.375c/gal, and Q4/Q1'27 was getting bought at 2.875c/gal, the same level as yesterday’s close. Oct/Q1'27 LST also had selling of good size at 3.625c/gal, where it closed the afternoon. In butane, spreads were better bid, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at 1.625c/gal in the front, and Q1/2 lifted at 21.375c/gal. Also saw Q1'27 Bunap buying at -$183.00/mt, down from yesterday’s closing level of -$177.00/mt.