Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Trades Below $100
Brent trades below $100 on optimism for conclusion to Iran conflict; APIs show US crude stock build; Russian tanker unloads oil in Cuba
Published: April 1, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
4 page report
Following last night’s sell-off, the Jun’26 Brent futures fell further this morning, briefly falling below $100/bbl before finding support at $99 and rebounding to $103/bbl by 18:00 SGT (11:00 BST).
The bearish sentiment comes as markets are optimistic that the conflict with Iran could be nearing an end, following President Trump’s comments last night. Trump expects the war with Iran to end within two to three weeks, claiming that key military goals, including stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons, have been achieved. Trump is also set to deliver a national address on Wednesday evening Washington local time. Meanwhile, API stats indicate that US crude stocks rose by 10.3mb in the week ending 27 Mar, while distillate and gasoline inventories declined. In other news, the CFTC is keeping a close watch on oil futures for unusual activity, its enforcement chief said Tuesday. Two ships carrying jet fuel from New York have crossed the Atlantic and are expected to land in the UK in the coming days, according to Kpler. This transatlantic shipment will be the first in nearly two years, which is unusual given that northeast US is typically net short in jet fuel. Overseas demand is soaring for high-sulphur US crude grades that are broadly comparable to Middle Eastern crude, with Mars crude fetching a $15/bbl premium against WTI as of late Monday, similarly, Poseidon from US Gulf fields also saw a $15 premium. A Russian oil tanker has begun unloading crude at Cuba’s Matanzas terminal, marking the first major delivery in months and offering temporary relief to the island’s severe energy crisis despite ongoing US restrictions. The tanker carries 700kb of Urals crude, where 40% is expected to be turned into fuel oil to power electricity pants, 35% refined into diesel, 15% into gasoline, and remaining 10% into cooking gas and related products. Finally, the Jun/Jul and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $8.12/bbl and $23.42/bbl respectively.
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