Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Trades Below $100
Brent trades below $100; Russian drones attack Ukraine's Izmail port; plentiful Iranian oil on vessels in Asia
Published: April 14, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
4 page report
This morning the Jun’26 Brent crude futures continued to trade below $100/bbl after yesterday’s sell-off. Prices fell to lows of around $96.50/bbl overnight and rose to $99.30/bbl just before 08:00 BST, and has since traded between the $98-99/bbl range.
From a macro perspective, there is growing optimism that both the US and Iran remain open to negotiations, with reports of potential further face-to-face discussions ahead of the current ceasefire expiry. Fibonacci levels continued to anchor Brent prices, with the 50% retracement at $97.55/bbl offering support, while the $100 psychological level and 61.8% retracement above $102/bbl may offer resistance. In the news, BP said its oil trading performance was exceptional in the first quarter as the Iran war caused a surge in prices. The Philippine’s Secretary of Energy Shraon Garin on Tuesday said the country has asked the US to extend a waiver to purchase Russian oil and refined products. Russian drones attacked Ukraine's Izmail port in the southern Odesa region overnight and damaged a civilian Panama-flagged vessel, Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday. According to Kpler, there are around 38mb of Iranian oil on vessels in Asia, with more than a third of the ships anchored in the Yellow Sea, likely providing a cushion for the nation’s independent refiners, should a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz choke off flows. According to China’s customs administration, Chinese crude oil imports fell by 2.8% y/y to 50.0 million tons in March, while oil product fell 12% to 4.6 million tons. Qantas said its fuel costs have surged, forcing it to reduce domestic capacity , where its fuel bill for the second half of the year will be between A$3.1 billion to A$3.3 billion, up from February’s estimate of A$2.5 billion. Finally, the Jun/Jul and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $5.56/bbl and $15.62/bbl respectively.
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