June Brent Below $100/bbl

Trump claims Iran goodwill; talks near. Gulf tensions rise, Saudi cautious; fuel panic in Australia; Petrobras surges on oil find.

Published: March 27, 2026

Written by:

Vincent Wu

Research Associate, Flux

4 page report

This morning, Jun'26 Brent crude futures rose from opening around $99.94/bbl at 01.00 GMT to $103.82/bbl at 10.42 GMT (time of writing).

Amid an intensifying Middle East conflict, US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran permitted the passage of 10 oil tankers through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz as a symbolic “gift” to signal credibility in potential negotiations. He framed the move as a deliberate confidence-building measure, noting Iran initially proposed allowing eight tankers before increasing the number to ten following further exchanges. Germany’s foreign minister says the US and Iran may soon enter direct negotiations, following earlier indirect contacts between the two sides. Johann Wadephul stated that preparations are already underway for a face-to-face meeting, which is expected to take place in Pakistan in the near future. Donald Trump said he would extend his deadline to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure by another 10 days to 6 April, claiming Tehran requested more time and that talks were progressing well. He had previously threatened action if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, then twice delayed the deadline, citing positive discussions, claims Iran dismissed as “fake news.” A Saudi intelligence source said the kingdom has urged the US to intensify its war against Iran, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman viewing it as a “historic opportunity,” though Saudi Arabia has not yet joined the fighting. The source and other analysts added that Riyadh remains cautious, calibrating its response despite Iranian drone attacks on its oil infrastructure. In Australia, hundreds of petrol stations have run out of at least one type of fuel, and prices have surged sharply. However, authorities say this is mainly due to panic buying and changes in consumer behaviour rather than an actual drop in supply. Brazil’s Petrobras is surging after announcing a major new oil discovery in the Campos Basin. The find, located in deeper pre-salt layers, has boosted confidence among major investment banks, with Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and BTG Pactual all raising their ratings or price targets. Petrobras shares have climbed more than 50% year-to-date. Finally, the Jun/Jul and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $5.75/bbl and $18.76/bbl, respectively.

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