Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
June Brent Dips to $103/bbl
Brent swings on geopolitics; China export ban, Nigeria supply up, Russia restarts, LNG damage tightens.
The Jun’26 Brent futures contract has traded within a $2 range this afternoon, between highs of $108.17/bbl at 13:15 BST and lows of $106.65/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices then climbed to $107.19/bbl at 17:05 BST before falling to $103.80/bbl at 18:35 BST (time of writing) Ahead of expiry, the May'26 Brent futures contract is currently printing at $119.04/bbl.
In the news, Trump has reportedly told the New York Post that he has succeeded in his mission of preventing Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon. Iran's President has also reportedly stated that they are "ready to end war," but desire guarantees. China is poised to extend its fuel export ban into April, with possible exceptions for small shipments to regional countries requesting aid. Discussions about limited diesel, jet fuel, and petrol exports, which could range from 150kt to 300kt, are ongoing. Spot sales by refiners will stay banned, while countries such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Vietnam may receive supplies. Elsewhere, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company is allocating 7 crude cargoes for May loading to Nigeria's Dangote refinery, up from 5 in previous months, Reuters sources said. Dangote has previously said it can source only about 5 crude cargoes locally, short of the 13–15 it needs, forcing it to import at war-influenced prices. In Russia, the Kirishi oil refinery could partially restart within a month after a drone attack caused a stoppage last week. The restart speed depends on how quickly Russian ports restore loadings, with a possible partial restart enabling secondary units to produce motor fuel. However, fuel exports remain difficult due to recent drone attacks on Baltic Sea ports. Within a month, three of four primary units are expected to resume operations, bringing the refinery to about 60% of its capacity. In other news, Chevron’s Wheatstone LNG plant offshore Australia has sustained “extensive damage” from a cyclone that recently passed through the country. The two liquefaction trains at the facility remain shut. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jun/Jul’26) and 6-month (Jun/Dec’26) Brent futures spreads are at $7.58/bbl and $24.62/bbl, respectively.
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