The Officials

Prices were again recovering almost as Brent wanted to touch the $65 ceiling again! ‘Too many people are short, this is why prices are bouncing up,’ said a trader. Meanwhile, the US administration is focussing on things dear to farmers and the Chinese: Soy beans! The Chinese push back against claims of major bean purchase plans claimed by Trump and his acolytes. Every day we hear about a promise made to American officials which is unverifiable.

A dissolution of the combined Chinese presence on the sellside? Maybe, as Sinochem swept up a couple of partials in the Dubai window. Read more in the report!

Despite the overnight high-profile drone strike on the Novorossiysk terminal – which reportedly damaged berths, a depot and briefly halted loading – fresh indications suggest things are slowly returning to normality. Although the full extent of the impact in the terminal located in the Black Sea is still unknown, crude is moving through the Caspian Pipeline towards the port. According to a shipping source, the “vast majority [of CPC crude] goes to Novorossiysk.” The Officials’ Perimeter of Observation shows 28 vessels at or near the port, with 5 of those inside the port.

The Ukrainian bombing of the Russian Novorossisk export facility sent the market in a tizzy. Brent nearly hit $65 bucks again and the mood is decidedly bullish. This raises the question as to why the market is reacting so violently if there is a glut of barrels and vessels full of unsold oil everywhere. We really question and have questioned this narrative, as the price is telling us something entirely different.

Is Russia being sidelined even further? Platts has issued a request for opinions on the potential exclusion of Russian-derived products in assessments for European products. For now, it’s just a ‘proposal’ but in practice, these proposals are often more of a fait-accompli. When asked for further details, Platts repeatedly asked for our subscription details to continue the conversation – which was one in search of information in the public interest for you, dear reader!

Let the data deluge begin! Those enamoured of economic data have been starved of information from the US, living out of scraps to feed into their models. The reopening of the government should release the stoppage of data prints. But, if we’ve survived a month and a half without them, how much of their operation is really surplus to requirements? But if you’re waiting for the October CPI and NFPs, you’ll never get them!

A day of red! Blood, guts on the floor! The futures market got battered today, as Brent futures plunged and undid all of yesterday’s gains, falling to $62.79/bbl by the European close. Meanwhile, on OPEC side, why should anybody listen to this nonsense? OPEC’s own reports are showing how meaningless the ‘quota increases’ really are: the group of 8’s production, according to secondary sources, only rose 25 kb/d m/m in October, far below the publicised 137 kb/d quotas.

The IEA flip-flopped and now sees oil demand growth as far as the eyes see! Are you surprised? 🤣 Ooh, before you go cynic on us note the US pays 14% of their budget. Making friends with the organ grinder will likely help you when it comes to getting your peanuts… Though the IEA did deny any influence or pressure on the process. Long the doomsters of demand, they’ve revised their view and now don’t expect ‘peak oil’ and forecast consumption to rise 13% by 2050! Once upon a time, there was a ‘Biden’ scenario and now the ‘Trump’ scenario is back. After all, the unveiled 2025 Outlook was 500+ pages to say demand will keep growing – or you could have just read The Officials!

Boy, the oil market is finally up. We The Officials have been confident something is wrong with the data and even today we queried several analysts along these lines: ‘If you are supremely confident your data is correct and the market is super long, how come the price is not going down, in fact it is going up? We can truthfully report back to you dear reader, we heard no answers and the entire thing still does not make any sense. So the oil price is going up. Inventories are not long, production is not coming up all of a sudden and guess what, the northern winter is here and it is cold!

In the week ending 7 November 2025, exchange traded futures volumes were up w/w across most instruments – with only exception being Brent and WTI.

The big switcheroo! Oil allocations to China drop and get increased to India primarily and to Japan and South Korea. Specifically, about India, we are hearing from sources they are 4-6 mill bbls higher m/m.

North Sea gets crushed while Lukoil faces yet another turmoil both in Europe and in the Middle East! Read more at The Officials!

Shutdown is close to an end, but the wave of the polar freeze is with us now. Meanwhile, China waived the port fees for a year! Read for more at The Officials!

An end to the paralysis? Or just sticking a band aid over an amputation? US Senate Majority Leader Thune is apparently ready to ‘adjust’ the expiration date on the already passed funding bill. Just resurrect a failed compromise to kick the can down the road…

Going against the tide was never going to be easy… Gunvor charged like a bear, eager to gobble up Lukoil’s foreign assets, seeming quite the cup. Bears get very hungry prior to winter. But the US isn’t happy! No food for you, they said. The US Treasury called Gunvor “the Kremlin’s puppet” and won’t back its purchase. Suitably chastised, Gunvor abandoned its bid, though denied being controlled by strings from afar.