Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Gaps Down $3/bbl
Trump signals Iran deal hope amid war warnings; Kuwait fuel oil exports surge, TurkStream gas flows rise, Trinidad refinery talks
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract opened $3/bbl lower than Friday's close, continuing to decline throughout the early morning, from $67.08/bbl at 02:15 GMT to $65.51/bbl at 05:45 GMT. Since then, it has risen to $66.32/bbl at 10:15 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, US President Donald Trump has said aboard Air Force One that he remains hopeful of a deal with Iran, despite Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning that any US attack would trigger a “regional war.” However, Trump added that “if [the US doesn’t] make a deal, we’ll see what happens.” In other news, Kuwait's al-Zour refinery increased fuel oil exports to record levels following its outage recovery, with most cargoes heading to Southeast Asia; rebounding from two months of near-zero exports, VLSFO exports surpassed 205kb/d in Jan. This surge from Kuwait will boost supply in bunkering hubs like Singapore and may pressure Asian prices. Elsewhere, Russia’s Gazprom’s average daily natural gas supplies to Europe via the TurkStream undersea pipeline increased 10.3% y/y in Jan; this transit route is now the sole remaining route for Russian gas to Europe after Ukraine declined to renew a five-year transit agreement with Moscow, which expired early 2025. In Jan, total Russian gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream reached 1.73bcm, up from 1.57bcm in the same period the previous year. In Trinidad, Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal says that discussions with Indian Oil Corp are underway, focusing on a new commercial structure that could allow partial operations at its 165kb/d Guaracara refinery to begin in late 2026; the refinery closed in 2018 after the previous government cited a foregone balance sheet. In other news, three Dangote Group subsidiaries have announced an expanded gas supply deal with NNPC units to support expansion plans. The plan aims to increase national output to 10bcf/d by 2027, up from approximately 8Bcf/d now, and to reach 12 Bcf/d by 2030. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $1.38/bbl and $2.40/bbl, respectively.
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