Edward Hayden-Briffett
Research Analyst, The Officials
Markets Struggle as Energy and Rate Fears Rise
US equities slide as energy and inflation fears lift rate‑hike bets in Europe; UK growth stalls, China credit stays strong, India CPI climbs
OFAC issues General License for importing Russian oil loaded before 12 March. US equities continue to sell off: Emini S&P 500 futures down another 0.3% today, now 6% down from 28 January peak, now around lowest since late November.
US initial jobless claims 213k, 2k lower than expected, while continuing claims steady w/w. UK GDP growth flat m/m in January, worse than expected 0.2% expansion. Y/y also weak at 0.8% versus expected 0.9%.
China’s Jan-Feb new loans reached 5.61 trillion yuan, slightly above forecasts, while aggregate financing and M2 also beat estimates, signalling resilient credit growth in early 2026.
Market beginning to price rate hikes from European central banks – OIS pricing 42 bps of hikes by ECB and 18 by Bank of England in next 12 months – due to inflation concerns over rising energy prices.
Indian inflation (CPI) rose 3.21% y/y in February, higher than expected 3.1% and 2.74% in January. Energy prices fell but are expected to rise in March, especially as reports of LPG and petrol shortages already emerging from rural India locations.
Data today: US GDP Q4 2nd estimate, PCE, durable goods orders, JOLTS job data
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