Brent Steady As US And Iran Trade Strikes For Sixth Consecutive Night

This morning the Sep’26 Brent crude futures continued to see rangebound price action between $84 and $86/bbl, trading at $85.50/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). The US and Iran traded strikes for the sixth consecutive night, where Iran said the latest US attacks had hit civilian infrastructure and claimed it had launched attacks on US military sites Kuwait, Bahrain, and Syria. Kuwait has also reported that a power generation and water desalination station was hit by an Iran attack. Shipping data showed that just three commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the fewest daily transits since May. BP and ConocoPhillips are set to announce over $60 billion in agreements and MOUs between US companies and the Iraqi government. China’s biggest airlines enter the peak summer travel season facing a more challenging outlook as Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern all warned that they expected combined first-half net losses up to 9 billion yuan, a sharp reversal from their combined first-quarter profit. In the latest move by Carlos Slim, Latin America's richest person, Carso, through a subsidiary, will purchase TotalEnergies’ 30% stake in the EP Mexico Block 30. The 3-2-1 crack spread rose to another record high on Thursday up to $69.66/bbl on low stockpiles and worsening tensions in the Middle East. Finally, the Sep/Oct’26 and Sep/Mar’27 Brent futures spreads are at $1.44/bbl and $6.45/bbl respectively.

This morning in Dated we saw some balmo Jul DFL buying up to -$0.8/bbl and Bal Jul Aug DFL buying up to -$1.83/bbl. We also Aug DFL trading up to $1.1/bbl and Sep DFL up to $1.32/bbl on higher spreads. We saw more selling of the 20-24 Jul DBL at -$1.17/bbl and selling of 27-31 Jul 1-week at -$0.25/bbl. We also saw 3-7 Aug 3-week offered low at $0.2/bbl and Cal Aug v 24-28 Aug offered at $0.15/bbl.

This morning in Brent Dubai we traded rangebound, with the Q1 bid by trade and refiner and offered by bank. The Nov BD was bid by trade and the Q4 bBD offered. The Aug BD was offered by Chinese selling of Aug Dated/Dubai. We traded rangebound in the Aug BD between $5.45/bbl to $5.8/bbl. The Dubai spreads initially traded lower, down from $0.4/bbl to $0.3/bbl, before rebounding into the window and following the window up to $0.52/bbl. There was a size buyer of Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box at $0.77/bbl. Other boxes were very quiet, the Q4/Q1 box offered again around $1.3/bbl.

380 weakened into the window with a fair amount of selling on Aug/Sep 380. The front spreads traded as low as $11.00/mt in the window before rebounding to $12.00/mt by lunchtime. Cracks traded lower as a result, with Aug 380 crack trading down to -$4.00/bbl. Barges were somewhat rangebound throughout the morning, Aug barge crack closed around -$8.00/bbl which where it was left last night. Barge spreads were implied a touch higher on higher crude with Aug/Sep around $6.75/mt.

A fairly uneventful beginning to the last day of the week. Aug/Sep Sing got lifted early on at $40.00/mt with the front Sing crack following trading up to $20.20/bbl. However heading into the window spreads buying relaxed seeing the Aug/Sep trading around $39.00/mt for the remainder of the morning. The crack trended between $19.80/bbl and $20.00/bbl. The E/W was a touch stronger with buying on x-arbs closer to the front as well as buying on Q4 and Q1. As a result Euro 0.5 was weaker, with the Euro crack down to $7.00/bbl and Aug/Sep Euro $20.25/mt.

This morning in Dated we saw some balmo Jul DFL buying up to -$0.8/bbl and Bal Jul Aug DFL buying up to -$1.83/bbl. We also Aug DFL trading up to $1.1/bbl and Sep DFL up to $1.32/bbl on higher spreads. We saw more selling of the 20-24 Jul DBL at -$1.17/bbl and selling of 27-31 Jul 1-week at -$0.25/bbl. We also saw 3-7 Aug 3-week offered low at $0.2/bbl and Cal Aug v 24-28 Aug offered at $0.15/bbl.

This morning in Brent Dubai we traded rangebound, with the Q1 bid by trade and refiner and offered by bank. The Nov BD was bid by trade and the Q4 bBD offered. The Aug BD was offered by Chinese selling of Aug Dated/Dubai. We traded rangebound in the Aug BD between $5.45/bbl to $5.8/bbl. The Dubai spreads initially traded lower, down from $0.4/bbl to $0.3/bbl, before rebounding into the window and following the window up to $0.52/bbl. There was a size buyer of Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box at $0.77/bbl. Other boxes were very quiet, the Q4/Q1 box offered again around $1.3/bbl.

Gasoline was weaker this morning. The east was very thin but cracks were trading at $21.20/bbl in Aug before weakening during the window. Spreads opened better bid at $4.90/bbl but got sold down to $4.80/bbl, as E/W firmed form -$15/bbl to -14.80/bbl with EBOB going better offered. Sep cracks got sold down to lows of $28.35/bbl and aug/sep softened from $71/mt to $70/mt.

This morning in Naphtha, MOC better bid in Aug with +5c getting lifted in Aug MOPJ MOC. Aug/Sep MOPJ better bid, trading up to $35/mt post window, with scale back selling in Sep/Nov MOPJ spread. EW slightly stronger on the day, seeing Sep trade up from $43.5/mt to $45/mt, with buying interest in Q1 and Cal EW also. EW boxes getting lifted, seeing trade buying $3.5/mt in Q1/Q2'27 box. Banks sell side of Cal'27 MOPJ crack -$5.9/bbl. Relatively balanced morning for prompt Europe cracks, with Sep Nap crack getting lifted -$4.75/bbl in the morning, and valued -$4.9/bbl end of window.

This morning in NGLs, FEI spreads opened better bid, with Sep/Oct trading at $17/mt, having closed yesterday at $13.5/mt. Aug/Sep FEI was also trading higher, opening at $31/mt up from $27/mt last night. Aug LST/FEI was initially trading at -$288/mt, before weakening slightly across the morning to eventually settle at -$290/mt. There was also buying of the ENT/NWE arb, seeing Jul/Aug trade at -$163/mt, and Aug/Aug lifted at -$159/mt. As FEI was stronger, FEI/CP found strength, with Aug and Sep both trading at $85/mt, up from $74.5/mt and $81.5/mt respectively. Had pronap buying out of Sep and Q4 at -$170/mt and -$124/mt, both weakening into end window to -$181/mt and -$130/mt. On screen end window, Aug FEI flat price was hit at $686/mt, having opened the day at $679/mt.

* The Nasdaq fell 1.6% yesterday with futures pointing to another 1.6% downside today, as semiconductor weakness extends into a second session and raises the risk of a broader tech-led drawdown rather than a one-day air pocket. The sell-off is notable for what it's not about: TSMC posted a better-than-expected Q2 print, yet the stock still dropped over 2% as the market fixated on management's raised capex guidance ($60-64bn for the year, up from $52-56bn) - a signal the Street is reading as margin pressure and reinvestment risk rather than demand strength, spilling over into SMH (-4%) and Arm (-5%+). The Nikkei fell 4% in sympathy, confirming this is a regional tech de-rating rather than a US-isolated move. Meanwhile, Apple bucked the tape entirely, closing at a new all-time high of $333.26, underscoring a rotation dynamic where investors are favoring AI-demand-side beneficiaries over infrastructure-capex names amid rising capex-intensity concerns.

* China's Q2 GDP printed +4.3% YoY, missing the official +4.5-5.0% target and marking the weakest quarter since Q4 2022, with H1 growth at +4.7% YoY as momentum decelerated from Q1's +5.0% - confirming the slowdown thesis is playing out faster than consensus expected. The investment side is the key stress point: fixed-asset investment fell -5.7% YoY in H1 (vs -4.1% through May), driven by a -18% collapse in property investment, the worst on record since 1992, signaling the property drag is far from bottoming. Consumption is sending mixed signals - retail sales rebounded to +1% YoY in June from -0.6% in May, but auto sales fell over -16%, suggesting any stabilization is fragile and demand-side support (stimulus, trade-in programs) may be losing traction; net-net, this keeps the case for further policy easing and a cautious stance on China-exposed commodities and cyclicals intact.

* China's auto exports have nearly doubled since February 2026, a pace disconnected from organic demand alone. This is consistent with coordinated industrial policy - subsidized production and export incentives offloading domestic overcapacity - compounded by a persistently undervalued Yuan that effectively exports China's deflation to trading partners. This raises the probability of retaliatory tariffs on global auto, steel, and EV supply chains in the back half of the year, a risk we're monitoring closely for portfolio exposure.