Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Softens to $66.10/bbl
Venezuela oil exports rebound as US lifts blockade; EU bans Russian gas by 2027; LNG glut may flip to shortage by 2030
The Apr’26 Brent Futures contract rallied from $65.76/bbl at 13:16 GMT to $66.50/bbl at 15:15 GMT. Prices have since softened to $66.10/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, Venezuela’s oil exports rebounded to about 800kb/d in January from 498kb/d in December after the US captured President Nicolás Maduro and lifted an oil blockade that had severely restricted shipments, according to shipping data. The easing of restrictions allowed exports, production and processing to accelerate and drew down large stockpiles built up during the embargo. The US became Venezuela’s main crude destination, largely through Chevron shipments, while traders moved millions of barrels to Caribbean storage for onward sales to the US, Europe and India. In other news, the European Union’s ban on Russian gas imports, approved last week, is “fully legally sound” and will stop Moscow from using energy as a political weapon, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said. The law, which takes effect by late 2027, makes binding the EU’s commitment to cut energy ties with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and aims to end indirect financing of the war. Despite opposition from Hungary and Slovakia and Hungary’s plan to challenge the measure in court, Jorgensen said all member states would still be required to comply. Elsewhere, rising electricity demand from AI and data centres, stronger fuel use in Asia, and Europe’s increased reliance on LNG could turn an expected global LNG supply glut later this decade into a shortage by around 2030, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said. While major projects due online between 2026 and 2029 had raised fears of oversupply, executives at an LNG industry conference said demand is growing faster than anticipated. Finally, the front-month Apr/May and 6-month Apr/Oct spreads are at $0.69/bbl and $2.57/bbl respectively.
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