Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Rallies to $67.67/bbl, Eases
Brent rangebound then firmer. Iran tensions rise, Venezuelan flows to US/EU resume, tanker rates surge, US refiner posts strong earnings.
The Apr’26 traded relatively rangebound this afternoon, from $67.06/bbl at 15:00 GMT to $66.65/bbl at 17:00 GMT. Prices rallied up from here to $67.67/bbl at 17:15 GMT, before easing to $67.24/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, a US official has reported to Reuters that the US military has shot down an Iranian drone that approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Also in the US, refiner Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier said the company can process roughly 250kb/d of Venezuelan crude oil. However, Lashier added that the price of Venezuelan crude must be competitive, and that it may displace some other heavy crude sources, including Western Canadian Select. Speaking at a conference in Houston, he said that “it’ll kind of rebalance and as always, find a new normal.” Elsewhere, Reuters sources report that Trafigura has dispatched its first Venezuelan fuel oil shipment to Europe in nearly two years. The Aframax tanker, Seawish, loaded approximately 500kb of high-sulphur fuel oil at Amuay, Venezuela, in late January and is scheduled to arrive in Rotterdam, Europe's primary fuel oil hub, by mid-February. This cargo would be the first Venezuelan fuel oil to reach Europe since April 2024, as per to Kpler data. In other news, oil tanker rates from the Middle East-to-China route has surged this week to its highest level since Nov 2025, as vessel supply tightens and Iranian tensions make shipper hesitant. According to a Bloomerg report, the daily rate for an oil tanker to ship crude from the Middle East to China jumped to highs of $129,000 on 02 Feb, up by 5.1% on the day. In the US, Marathon Petroleum has beaten its Q4 earnings expectations due to surging US refining margins. The company reported an adjusted net income of $1.2bn and saw it stocks jump 4% on the NYSE in pre-market trade. CEO Maryann Mannen said in a statement that in 2025, “strong refining operational performance and commercial execution drove cash flow generation.” Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) spreads are at $1.38/bbl and $2.46/bbl, respectively.
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