Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Rallies to $92.43/bbl
Total evacuates staff from Basra Iraq at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
The May’26 Brent Futures contract rallied all afternoon to $91.78/bbl at 14:58 GMT before falling to $90.38/bbl at 15:03 GMT. Prices have since rallied again to $92.43/bblSaudi Arabia increases shipping from Red Sea, OPEC output rose in February,
In the news, Saudi Arabia is increasing oil shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz after the US–Israel attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation halted Gulf exports. Ship-tracking data shows Yanbu loaded 9.4mb in the first five days of March, about 60% higher than February levels. However, the increase cannot replace the roughly 6 mb/d Saudi Arabia normally exports through Hormuz. Although the East-West pipeline could reroute up to 5 mb/d, infrastructure limits, tanker shortages, high freight rates and security risks in the Red Sea mean shipments remain constrained, leaving global oil supply significantly disrupted. In other news, OPEC oil production rose sharply in February according to a Reuters survey. Total OPEC output increased by 530kb/d to 28.87mb/d, with Saudi Arabia alone boosting production by 250kb/d as part of contingency planning ahead of possible US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Other producers including Iran, Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela also increased output. The rise occurred despite the wider OPEC+ alliance agreeing to keep production targets steady in the first quarter of the year. Elsewhere, French major TotalEnergies has evacuated its expatriate staff from energy projects in Basra, Iraq, according to Iraqi oil sources. While the company declined to comment on the evacuation, it had earlier said it would arrange the return of employees’ families from the region, reflecting rising security concerns and operational risks for international energy companies working in Iraq. Finally, at the time of writing, the font-month May/Jun’26 spread is at $6.56/bbl and the six-month May/Nov’26 spread is at $18.13/bbl.
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