James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
Nvidia Revenue Growth, Bullish Equities, US Economy Gains Momentum
Nvidia revenue guide of 79% y/y growth; market breadth improving; US economy; software industry; rare earth shortages
Nvidia revenue guide of 79%YoY growth (way ahead of consensus) shows the AI data centre buildout isn't losing momentum. (Chart 1, FT, LSEG)
The bullish equity case. Market breadth is experiencing a historic improvement: 66% of S&P 500 stocks are outperforming the index year-to-date, the highest since data began in 1986. The percentage has more than DOUBLED from the extreme concentration seen in 2023, 2024, and 2025, when only 29%, 29%, and 31% of stocks beat the index, respectively. This is an even stronger reading than during the 2000 Dot-Com bubble burst in 2000-2002. This means 332 of the S&P 500 members are exceeding the +0.7% YTD gain of the index. (Chart 2, FT, Ned Davis Research)
The US economy is gaining momentum. Flatbed rejection rates have surged to 40%, surpassing records from 2021 at the height of COVID. This sharp increase signals booming demand for industrial freight - steel, lumber, and machinery - as carriers reject contract loads for higher-paying spot shipments. It’s a strongly bullish indicator pointing to accelerating activity in manufacturing, construction, and heavy industry across the U.S. Flatbeds are breaking out above previous records that were broken in 2021, the height of COVID. (Chart 3, SONAR, @FreightAlley)
The software industry is apparently dying but job postings for software engineers are rapidly rising. (Chart 4, Citadel Securities)
Reuters reports that rare earth shortages are worsening for US aerospace and semiconductor firms, namely 'rare earths such as yttrium and scandium' which are 'almost entirely produced in China'.
Bank Of England’s Dovish Shift Heralds March Cut – FT
Data today – US weekly jobless claims.
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