James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
Markets Watch Crude, Middle East Crisis Disrupts Southeast Asian Economies
Asset classes, including equities, bonds, currencies closely watching oil headlines; Middle East crisis disrupts southeast Asian economies
Equities, bonds, currencies and precious all watching every oil headline.
The S&P recovered Friday’s losses but have run into selling at critical resistance. I can’t see how this market can stay here, massive complacency. (Chart 1 Bloomberg)
JPMorgan marking down loan portfolios of private credit groups: FT
Private credit market cracks are rising at an alarming pace: The median listed BDC is trading at 80% its net asset value (NAV), the lowest since 2020. This means the market is pricing these funds at a ~20% discount to what they claim their loans are worth. (Chart 2, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research)
Shares of Canadian subprime lender Goeasy fall 50% on guidance of surging loan defaults and write downs
Volkswagen is officially cutting 50,000 jobs as profits crash to their lowest level in a decade. Europe’s largest carmaker announced today that it will eliminate roughly 17% of its German workforce by 2030 to stop a total financial collapse. Profits plummeted 44% last year because the company is being hit from every side: BYD sales surge, US tariffs cost German energy & labour costs.
Porsche’s disastrous EV bet tanked its profits 98%. But the headline is worse than reality. €4.7 billion of that decline is two accounting charges.
China February vehicle sales -15.2 % y/y vs -3.2% in January.
World is shutting down, Philippines is going to four-day work week, Vietnam is saying WFH, Bangladesh and Pakistan also slowing down things. Also Australia gets over 1/4 of its fuel imports from South Korea. South Korea is now considering bans on exports of fuel produced using strategic oil reserve releases.
Impeachment odds for Trump hit all-time high. On Kalshi, the probability has climbed to around 71%.
Americans are now taking more hardship withdrawals from their 401(k) retirement accounts than at any time in history.
Data today – CPI, but this is irrelevant in current circumstances, it will be the lowest CPI print we see for the next 6 months.
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