Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
June Brent at $107
Trump eyes Iran oil, EU/SK brace, Saudi boosts pipeline, Russia aids Cuba amid supply shocks
Published: March 30, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
4 page report
Jun'26 Brent futures gapped up to open at $109.28/bbl at 02.00 BST, but is softer at $107.70/bbl at 11.16 BST (time of writing).
US President Donald Trump told the Financial Times that he is considering seizing Iran’s oil resources, particularly Kharg Island, a key export hub, as thousands of US troops deploy to the region, though such a move would escalate the conflict and require a prolonged military presence. When asked about Iranian defences on the island, Trump said, “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.” Trump claimed that Mojtaba Khamenei, seen as a possible successor, may be dead or seriously injured, but Iranian officials denied this and said the country’s leadership remains intact despite ongoing speculation. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has expanded to 7mb/d, allowing the country to transport oil from its eastern fields to the Red Sea without relying on the Strait of Hormuz. Russia's Interfax news agency reports a Russian tanker carrying about 100 kt of crude oil has arrived in Cuba, providing a short-term lifeline to the island as it faces a severe energy crisis marked by nationwide blackouts and strained hospital services. The shipment (the first to reach Cuba since January) came hours after Trump said that he had no problem with countries, including Russia, sending supplies to the island. South Korea may impose nationwide driving restrictions if oil prices rise to $120–$130/bbl, expanding current public-sector vehicle limits to the general public for the first time since 1991. The country, which imports about 70% of its oil from the Middle East, is already enforcing a five-day car rotation system for government use and considering fuel tax cuts. EU energy ministers will meet tomorrow to coordinate measures to address tightening oil and gas markets caused by the war, according to an internal document, which stresses the need to avoid fragmented national responses and market disruption. Finally, the Jun/Jul and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $7.13/bbl and $22.70/bbl, respectively.
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