Martha Dowding
Research Associate, Flux
US Risk Exodus
OI drops in WTI, RBOB and USLD with Brent spec more balanced
Published: March 30, 2026
Written by:
Martha Dowding
13 page report
In the week ending 24 Mar, open interest in Brent futures increased for the second consecutive week, by +3.76% as both long and short prod/merc players increased risk, alongside both long and short money managers.
- In the week ending 24 Mar, open interest in Brent futures increased for the second consecutive week, by +3.76% as both long and short prod/merc players increased risk, alongside both long and short money managers. This is the first time in four weeks that prod/merc players added length in Brent futures, suggesting buy-side hedging has resumed as prices in the M1 saw a net loss in the week, closing below $100/bbl on 24 Mar. Prod/merc net positioning continued to drop to its lowest level since the week to 11 Feb'25.
- Money managers' net positioning in Brent dropped. Funds were risk-on in the week to 24 Mar, with long positions rising by 14mb (+3.53%). Outright fund length in Brent is now at its highest level since the week to 16 Oct 2018. Short positions, on the other hand, increased after five weeks of drops. There was a 38.91% weekly increase in fund shorts in Brent, which is the largest percentage increase w/w since the week to 04 Jun 2024. This was likely due to the very low outright levels, although this was the largest increase in outright fund short risk in Brent in 15 weeks. The long:short ratio is now at the 57th percentile for all weeks since 2013, from the 75th percentile last week. This shows a far more balanced speculative market in Brent.
- WTI saw the largest drop in open interest since August 2025. Both prod/merc and managed by money players closed long and short positions in the week. Funds closed 8.21mb of their length in WTI (-4.34%), which is the largest w/w drop in since the week to 23 Sep'25.
- In ICE gasoil futures, there was an increase in risk, with OI increasing by 26.74mb, which is the largest increase in 11 weeks. There was more bullish spec risk in the week, as length from funds increased by around +3.44% w/w after three weeks of declines, as short funds continued to close positions for the third week.
- In RBOB futures, open interest continued to drop in the week to 24 Mar. Total OI in RBOB has dropped by -24% in the past four weeks, to 355.1mb on 24 Mar, following a -6.70% w/w drop. There was more bearish spec risk as short positions by funds increased after seven weeks of drops, and fund length dropped by -8.19% w/w. The long:short ratio is now at the 90th percentile for all weeks since 2013, from the 93rd percentile last week.
- There has been a similar exodus of -32% of total risk in ULSD Heating Oil over the past five weeks, to 255.64mb. Managed by money length dropped by -16.14% w/w, a -45% drop over the past four weeks. Funds closed -8.39% of their short positions, which have fallen by -70% over the past six weeks. Funds' short positions in heating oil are at their lowest since the week to 06 Dec'22.
- Funds were risk-off in Natural Gas (Henry Hub) over the week, but there was a larger, -6.69% drop in long positioning. This is the largest drop in fund length in natgas in nine weeks.
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