Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Declines Despite Renewed Threats From Trump
Brent eases as Trump targets Iran funds, alternative oil routes expand, Iran revenue rises, and OPEC+ plans further output hikes.
Published: July 24, 2026
Written by:
Donna Dong
The Sep’26 Brent futures contract declined this morning, from $99.82/bbl at 07:26 BST to $96.52/bbl at 10:42 BST, before some better support to $97.73/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
In the news, US President Trump has posted on Truth Social that the US will use Iranian funds under its control to compensate for any future damage to ships or cargo caused by attacks linked to Iran. Trump said that "any and all damages done to Ships, Cargo, or anything related thereto, will be paid for by Iranian Money" held by the United States, adding that the damages could be "very substantial." Elsewhere, the US has imported Iraqi fuel oil shipped via Syria for the first time, according to shipping data and Reuters sources, as Iraq expands its Mediterranean export route following disruptions to Gulf trade. Three Aframax tankers loaded Iraqi-origin fuel oil at Syria's Baniyas port between June and July for delivery to the US Gulf Coast. The cargoes were transported overland from Iraq into Syria, providing an alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. In Iran, oil revenues in dollar terms rose 1.5x y/y between April and July after the US temporarily eased sanctions, according to Iranian media. Iran’s Oil Ministry reported $7.5bn in oil revenue over the first four months of the Iranian calendar year, compared with less than $5bn during the same period in 2025. In other news, OPEC+ is expected to approve another 188kb/d increase in production targets for September when it meets on 2 August, according to Reuters sources. The group has continued raising output in an effort to regain market share, although renewed disruptions across the Gulf and Red Sea have once again limited some members' ability to increase production. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar’27) spreads are at $5.72/bbl and $16.45/bbl, respectively.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
A softer start to the last day of the week on VLSFO. Spreads sold off on lower crude while cracks drifted off as a result. Aug/Sep Sing traded down to $41.75/mt on thin liquidity while the Aug Sing crack traded down to $20.10/bbl. Euro 0.5 remained steadfast in the face of Sing weakness. Aug/Sep traded around $33.75/mt while the Euro crack was a touch stronger than last nights close at $8.35/bbl.
In HSFO, there seemed to be general weakness in Singapore this morning. 380 cracks came off, trading down a touch to -$2.10/bbl while there was outright weakness on 380 E/W which traded down to $47.00/mt. Aug/Sep 380 was weaker as a result finishing the morning around $26.00/mt. Barges were stronger this morning off the back of E/W weakness. The barge crack traded up to -$9.50/bbl while Aug/Sep barges closed at $10.00/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
It was a weak morning in gasoline with Sep 92 cracks selling off from $22/bbl to $21/bbl, and Aug/Sep came off from $7.95/bbl to $7.55/bbl on lower Brent, with tradehouses showing scaleback buyside interest. E/W was weaker as well, with Aug trading down from -$7.50bbl to -$8.10/bbl. EBOB opened weaker on lower RBBRs but remained relatively rangebound around $33.40/bbl in Aug, and Aug/Sep sold off from $70/mt to $66/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This morning in NGLs, there was some early Chinese buying of FEI flat price, with Oct trading at $692/mt. Aug/Sep FEI opened the day at $41/mt, before coming off slightly to $39/mt end window. Sep/Oct FEI trading at $33/mt down to $30/mt before printing $28.50/mt by end of the morning. Aug LST/FEI traded -$370/mt to start the morning, before strengthening to -$360/mt as FEI flat price came off. There was FEI/MOPJ buyside interest in Aug, trading from -$121/mt up to -$117/mt, as MOPJ was weaker on the day. Had some Aug/Sep CP buying at $25/mt, down from yesterday’s closing level of $35/mt. End window on screen Aug FEI flat price hit at $749/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Global Macro
Yields spike, equities sink, dollar jumps.
The US 30-year is now 1bp away from new highs since May 2006, this will be next weeks headlines. This is a quarterly chart going back to 1980’s. Trending! The US 10Y Note Yield officially surges above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025.
S&P falls 1.2%, Nasdaq was down 1.9% and sits on key support.
Yen weakens to another multi decade low, 163.70 vs USD. With the dollar about to break higher.
US initial jobless claims just came in at the lowest level since 1969.
Carnage in hyperscaler bond land: IG bond spreads exploding every day, as credit investors refuse to fund memory chip purchases any longer. CDS are following.
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