Brent over $100/bbl!

President Trump said he is considering a "massive attack" on Iran, claiming Tehran "haven't received enough pain yet" and that he is close to making a decision. He said Israel could join the operation if asked, but stressed the US does not need its support, while adding that any escalation would have consequences. The US imported Iraqi fuel oil via Syria's Baniyas port for the first time, as Iraq expands alternative export routes while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Since May, Iraqi fuel oil has been trucked into Syria and shipped from Baniyas to customers in the US, Europe and Egypt. Iraq plans to expand the route to include crude and naphtha, even after Hormuz reopens. The new corridor helps diversify Iraqi exports and replace disrupted Gulf fuel oil flows. The current export corridor is likely moving ~70 kb/d of fuel oil, with the observed shipments averaging ~35 kb/d over the initial ramp-up period. The Houthis have announced that the ships struck last night were attacked using a drone and a cruise missile, with one vessel suffering a fire on its top deck while a second reportedly turned back toward the Suez Canal. The group says it will expand attacks beyond Bab el-Mandeb to target Saudi-linked shipping regardless of route, and warned that Aramco oil facilities could also be targeted if the blockade on Yemen is not lifted. The US and Saudi Arabia have signed a civil nuclear agreement allowing the kingdom to build US-designed reactors and enrich uranium without requiring the IAEA's Additional Protocol for snap inspections. The deal now awaits Congressional approval. Finally, the Aug/Sep’26 and Aug/Feb’27 Brent futures spreads are at $6.13/bbl and $16.87/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon we traded in rangebound, with the Aug Brent/Dubai trading between $4.40/bbl to $4.70/bbl, largely directionless. There was some trade selling of Oct Brent/Dubai towards the highs of the day at $4.15/bbl, some smalls buying of Q4 around $3.46/bbl. The Dubai spreads gave back most of their gains late in the session, the Aug/Sep spreads down from $4.10/bbl to $3.82/bbl. There was producer selling of boxes, the Sep/Oct, Oct/Nov and Nov/Dec boxes all offered. They traded mostly rangebound however as spreads were so choppy.

A fairly rangebound afternoon on VLSFO, Aug/Sep Sing traded around $44.00/mt for the majority of the afternoon. It was a similar trend on Sing cracks which traded between $20.80 and $21.00/bbl this afternoon. 0.5 E/W Continued to drift off on a stronger Euro complex, with Aug trading down to $80.25/mt. As mentioned, Euro 0.5 was stronger which saw the Euro crack close the day around $8.05/bbl. Aug/Sep Euro was stronger as a result, trading up to $33.50/mt.

A similarly rangebound afternoon on HSFO. The 380 crack didn’t move much and traded around -$2.00/bbl. The 380 E/W was largely unchanged closing the afternoon at $49.50/mt. Barge cracks traded down a touch to -$9.85/bbl from -$9.70/bbl. HSFO spreads were slightly higher on crude rallies, with Aug/Sep 380 and barges closing the afternoon at $28.00/mt and $9.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil was well bid, chasing up on this strong ICE gasoil move. E/W followed suit and rallied $8 to -$18/mt in Aug with buyers in the back chasing up in Q1 and Q4. Regrade was offered but found lots of buying at -$2.25/bbl where it found a floor. Kero spreads have been well offered in Aug/Sep, putting pressure on the Aug/Sep regrade roll. Prompt ICE gasoil was strong with Aug/Sep rallying $7 to $51/mt.

It was a volatile afternoon on gasoline. RBBRs sold off to lows of $31.40/bbl in oct before rebounding in the window. Arbs traded between 25.20c/gal and 26.15c/gal, with Q4 well offered down to 24.65c/gal. EBOB was supported, with cracks firming from $33.80/bbl to $34.20/bbl, and cal’s were valued at $15/bbl. Front EBOB spreads remained rangebound around $70/mt, with deferred crack rolls generally moving lower. E/W weakened after this morning’s rally, trading down from -$6.50/bbl to -$7.25/bbl with 92 cracks seeing mixed interest around $27/bbl.

This afternoon in Naphtha, prompt naphtha cracks sold off aggressively, gapping down from $1.20/bbl to lows of -$0.70/bbl, where it bounces back slightly - recovering to -$0.15/bbl end of window. E/W finds strength on the back of Europe weakness, seeing Aug E/W trade up to $73/mt, but also come off slightly during Europe’s slight recovery – getting sold down to $70.25/mt. Aug/Sep Europe particularly offered, trading down to $57/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads traded down from the morning levels, with Aug/Sep sold down to $42/mt, before strengthening back to trade at $44/mt end window. In the deferred, there was some Jan27/Mar27 buying at $45/mt, where it eventually settled post window. Aug LST/FEI traded up on the afternoon from the morning’s lows of -$380/mt, to be printing -$373/mt end window. We had the Q4 LST/FEI also trade down from -$270/mt to -$273/mt, before it strengthened into close to settle at -$267/mt, and the Cal’27 arb was trading at -$185/mt. In Europe, there was LST/NWE buying at -$189/mt, and the Aug/Sep roll was trading at -$16.75/mt. US opened weaker today in both propane and butane. In LST, Sep/Oct was trading at -0.625c/gal, and Aug/Nov was lifted for big size at -1.75c/gal. The Feb/Mar/Apr’27 fly was also getting lifted at -0.25c/gal with US trade on the buyside. In butane, there was spread selling in the front with Sep/Oct at -0.125c/gal, and Oct/Dec at 2.5c/gal. C4/C3 interest in Aug trading at 37.25c/gal, and Sep was lifted 36.125c/gal.