Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Rangebound at $109.33/bbl
Russia refinery and port hit, exports halt; US strikes continue, Iraq eyes recovery if Hormuz reopens, crisis talks.
The Jun’26 Brent futures contract has traded relatively rangebound this afternoon, between $109.71/bbl at 14:30 BST and $111.48/bbl at 16:00 BST. Prices are currently printing $109.33/bbl as of the time of writing at 17:00 BST.
In the news, Russia's fourth-largest oil refinery, NORSI, halted its operations after a drone attack by Ukraine. During the attack, two plant facilities were hit, and a power station along with houses were damaged. Reuters sources reportedly said the supplies could be suspended until the end of April. In related news, crude oil exports from Russia's Sheskharis terminal (capacity 700 kb/d) at the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea were halted following a drone strike and a subsequent fire; the damage is still being assessed. Elsewhere, US Vice President JD Vance stated that US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island do not signify a shift in American strategy; meanwhile, a separate US official told Reuters that additional strikes on military targets did not affect its oil infrastructure and that some of the strikes were targeting sites that had already been previously struck. Vance, speaking in Budapest, said the Trump administration was confident it would receive a response from Iran by 20:00 EST. In Iraq, the head of the country’s state-run Basra Oil Company has stated that the nation could restore crude oil exports to ~3.4mb/d within a week if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Bassem Abdul Karim said that Iran has thus far only provided verbal confirmation that Iraqi tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In other news, leaders of the IEA, IMF, and the World Bank are due to meet on 13 Apr to discuss the energy crisis and the war in Iran. In a post on X, IEA executive director Fatih Birol stressed the need for collaboration between the institutions to support governments amid the economic fallout. Finally, the front-month (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jun/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $9.44/bbl and $27.98/bbl, respectively.
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