Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Inches Up to $94.52/bbl
Iran hits Saudi pipeline; refinery attack, India buys Iran oil, Venezuela output weak, Russia disruptions persist, supply risks remain.
The Jun’26 Brent futures contract has found better strength this afternoon, rising from $90.51/bbl at 14:15 BST to $94.52/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing).
In the news, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline just hours after a ceasefire was agreed to pause the Iran war, damaging its only crude oil export route since hostilities started. The pipeline was diverting roughly 7mb/d of crude from the kingdom to the Red Sea port of Yanbu as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. In related news, an oil refinery on Iran's Lavan Island was struck in an "enemy attack" on Wednesday, causing no casualties, according to the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, as reported by the Oil Ministry's news outlet, Shana. The company stated the facility was hit around 10:00 (0730 BST). Safety and firefighting teams are currently working to control the fire and secure the site. Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters, "No, (we) weren't involved." In India, the nation will receive its first oil from Iran in 7 years, after the US temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and refined products to address supply shortages. According to LSEG data, Indian Oil Corp purchased the cargo, which is now on a Curacao-flagged VLCC named Jaya, heading to India's east coast and expected to arrive later this week. In other news, Venezuela's refining network is currently processing approximately 399kb/d, which is about 31% of its 1.3mb/d capacity. This is lower than the 35% capacity utilisation it achieved in February, as state-owned PDVSA faces challenges in keeping units operational after restarting them. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jun/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $4.93/bbl and $16.38/bbl, respectively.
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