Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Funds Sell Products
Brent sees rising shorts, WTI adds longs; products turn bearish with gasoil weakest.
In the week ending 14 Apr, there was a small net increase of risk into Brent futures (+0.14%), following two weeks of fairly significant drops (-3.4% and -4.0%).
- Money managers were more confidently bearish in Brent this week, adding 3.1mb (+6.15%) to their short positions, and removing 21.1mb of their total length (-4.96%). This is the second week we have seen funds removing length and adding short risk. Nonetheless, outright long positions (404mb) are still around the highest levels seen this decade so far. The long:short ratio sits at 7.54:1.00, the 84th percentile for all weeks since 2013.
- Overall open interest in WTI futures increased by 56.6mb (+2.78%) in the week to 14 Apr. This is the largest increase in overall risk in 12 weeks, since the week to 20 Jan. Money managers saw opposing positioning to Brent, as they increased their length by 13.4mb (+7.15%). This is the largest w/w addition to buy-side risk in WTI since June 2025. Short funds removed 6.31 mb (-5.84%) in the week, the largest w/w closure of shorts in 5 weeks. Positioning remains historically bearish, with the long:short percentile at the 25th percentile across all weeks since 2013. Short swap positions increased +1.57% after a w/w closure in the week prior. This is the largest increase in four weeks. Outright short swaps have risen by 62% in the year-to-date, with producers locking in elevated prices.
- Both crudes have seen the extremes in positioning from funds more mediated with the week, with money managers' net positioning dropping in Brent and increasing in WTI as steps were made towards a ceasefire between the US and Iran in the week to 14 Apr as the market partially unwound some of the geopolitical risk premium.
- Total OI in ICE gasoil futures continued to drop this week, dropping by 7.9mb (-0.94%). OI in gasoil has dropped by almost -18% since the start of the year. Long managed money positions continued to drop in the week to 14 Apr as spec bulls removed 6.2mb (-5.76%). Funds removed length in six of the past seven weeks. There has been a combined drop of over -23% in length since the start of the conflict, compared to the week to 24 Feb. Funds added 5.5mb (+18.3%) to their overall short positions. This is the largest w/w addition to short positions in gasoil since October 2025.
- In RBOB futures, open interest rose by 16.9mb (+6.33%) after six weeks of de-risking. Money managers continued to close overall length in RBOB, although the magnitude of these position closures has decreased significantly, with a drop of only 0.35mb (-0.55%) in the week to 14 Apr. Funds increased sell risk significantly by 2.4 mb (+51.2%). This is the largest percentage increase in short positions in RBOB in 18 weeks.
- Open interest in ULSD Heating Oil rose for the first time in eight weeks, by 14.5mb (+6.3%). Money managers were risk-on this week, with a larger addition to short positions. Funds added 0.57mb (+2.1%) to their overall length, with the 1.8mb (+19.8%) increase in short positions pressuring the long:short percentile to the 75th percentile across all weeks since 2013, from the 84th in the week prior.
- OI increased in Natural Gas (Henry Hub) for the third consecutive week, rising by nearly +1.7%. It was another risk-on week for money managers, with long and shorts rising by +6.6% and +15.8%, respectively. Short positions are at their highest level since the week ending 13 Jan.
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