Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
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Brent Falls to $97.92/bbl Post-Rally
Oil jumps on ceasefire news; IMF flags Asia risk; ARA stocks mixed, gasoil down; spreads widen as volatility persists.
The Jun’26 Brent Futures contract rallied all afternoon to $98.60/bbl at 16:35 BST before falling to $97.92/bbl at 16:39 BST.
Prices then bounced back to $98.79/bbl at 16:42 BST before softening to $98.53/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). The sudden move in price around 16:40 came after US President Trump announced on Truth Social that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun had reached an agreement to a 10 Day ceasefire. In the news, the IMF warned that Asia is especially vulnerable to an energy shock due to its heavy reliance on Middle East fuel, with potential for slower growth, higher inflation, and weaker trade balances if the conflict persists. Factors like strong exports and supportive financial conditions are cushioning the impact for now. However, energy use accounts for a larger share of Asia’s economy than in Europe, increasing exposure to price spikes and shortages. Growth is projected to ease, with sharper declines possible under severe scenarios. Policymakers are urged to remain flexible, managing inflation risks while providing targeted fiscal support amid limited resources. In other news fuel inventories at the ARA hub showed mixed changes, according to Insights Global. Gasoil stockpiles fell sharply by 142 kmt to 1.95 million, while jet fuel and naphtha stocks also declined. In contrast, gasoline inventories rose slightly by 25 kmt to 1.04m mt, and fuel oil increased by 37k kmt. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jun/Aug’26 and 6-month Jun/Dec’26 spreads are at $5.56/bbl and $16.03/bbl respectively.
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