Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Climbs to $95.80/bbl
Brent dips then rebounds on US stock draw; Russia aids Cuba, Asia boosts imports, Japan plans $10bn support amid supply shock.
The Jun’26 Brent futures contract initially fell this afternoon, from $96.38/bbl at 12:06 BST to $94.08/bbl at 15:29 BST, before regaining to $95.80/bbl at 16:40 BST.
The intra-afternoon strength was observed post-EIA stats, which showed a -900kb draw in US crude stocks. This marks the first draw in US crude stocks in 6 weeks. In the news, Russia has pledged to continue assisting Cuba with critical oil supplies, following the 700kb of crude oil sent to the island two weeks ago, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Elsewhere, Central Asia and Afghanistan boosted rail fuel imports from Russia and Belarus by more than 50% during Q1’26. This shift comes as Moscow redirects energy supplies away from Europe and as the Iran conflict limits deliveries from the Middle East. In Japan, the nation is preparing a $10bn financial support package for Southeast Asian economies to help them secure crude oil amid the Middle East supply shock. Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to announce the package on Wednesday during an online summit of the Asia Zero Emission Community Plus (AZEC Plus). This framework encompasses Japan and most ASEAN member countries in Southeast Asia; the package will be distributed via the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and other financial institutions. In other news, a supertanker aiming to pick up crude from Iraq is attempting its second passage through the Strait of Hormuz. If successful, it will be the first tanker to enter the Persian Gulf from the West since the US began a blockade in the Gulf of Oman on Monday. The Agios Fanourios I, a VLCC registered under Malta and not blacklisted by any jurisdiction, is broadcasting its location in the Persian Gulf and signalling that it is heading for Basrah in Iraq. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jun/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $4.12/bbl and $13.20/bbl, respectively.
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