Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Over $96
Trump signals Iran war nearing end as Hormuz blockade disrupts oil flows; Asia secures alternative supplies, Japan pledges $10B support
Published: April 15, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
4 page report
This morning, Jun’26 Brent futures were supported from opening at $94.24/bbl at 01:00 BST to $96.10/bbl at 10:45 BST (time of writing).
US President Donald Trump said the war is “close to over” and hinted that a second round of face-to-face talks with Iran could take place soon in Pakistan. The US president suggested during an interview that the conflict’s resolution is imminent, stating, “ I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead” to ABC. The US military says it has completely halted maritime trade to and from Iran, as its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz enters a second day, already forcing ships to turn back and tightening pressure on Iran’s economy amid stalled peace efforts. Despite the naval blockade, a blacklisted Iranian VLCC successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz and reached Iran with its tracking system on, openly defying US sanctions, according to Iran’s consulate in Mumbai. A supertanker, Agios Fanourios I, is making a second attempt to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after turning back earlier when US-Iran talks collapsed. The Malta-flagged VLCC, not under sanctions, is heading to Basrah, Iraq, to load crude for delivery to Vietnam and is currently transiting via a Tehran-approved route. South Korea has secured about 273mb of crude oil and up to 2.1 million mt of naphtha from Kazakhstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. The supplies will be delivered by alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz blockade by the end of 2026, according to the president’s chief of staff. Japan will provide US$10 billion in financial support to Southeast Asian nations to help manage rising oil prices caused by the Middle East war. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the move aims to protect regional energy supply chains and ensure continued access to critical medical supplies for Japan. The initiative, called Power Asia, will fund emergency oil procurement, boost stockpiles, and diversify energy sources. Japan stressed that the aid will not involve its own strategic reserves and that domestic supply remains secure. Finally, the Jun/Jul and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $4.25/bbl and $13.92/bbl, respectively.
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