Brent moves in and out of $95/bbl

There appears to be rising market indecision here, with today's price action forming a spinning top candle, marked by....

Published: April 21, 2026

Written by:

Mita Chaturvedi

Research Associate, Flux

4 page report

Jun’26 Brent futures gapped open to $94.88/bbl at 01:00 BST, reached a low of $93.87/bbl at 06:32 BST and a high of $95.57/bbl at 10:03 BST before returning to $94.45/bbl at 11:36 BST (time of writing)....

There appears to be rising market indecision here, with today's price action forming a spinning top candle, marked by a very small real body. Russian oil sales to India are expected to average over 2mb/d in April and May, with Reuters reporting that refiners have secured much of their supply via non-sanctioned entities and vessels. Russian crude arrivals at Indian ports are set to reach 2.1mb/d in the week ending 27 April, up from 1.67mb/d the previous week - per Kpler data. This mid-April dip was likely driven by drone attacks at Russian oil infrastructure. Elsewhere, crude oil loadings from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port fell 17% to about 3.5mb/d in the week ending 20 April. Indonesia will stop importing low-grade diesel imports beginning in July 2026. This constitutes 500ppm sulphur and lower cetane diesel (which trades at a discount to ULSD). In other news, Russia is reportedly set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline, beginnning 1 May - as per sources of Reuters. Kazakh oil exports to Germany via the pipeline totalled 43kb/d per day in 2025 - a 44% increase y/y. Finally, India may see a severe shortage of solar cells as new rules from June mandate the use of locally made cells - which could derail some clean energy projects. India has around 25.6 gigawatt of solar cells production capacity against demand for about 50 gigawatts - with imports from China typically making up over 90% of the nation's solar cell demand. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $4.35/bbl and $13.50/bbl, respectively.

Brent briefly hits $99/bbl

Uncertainty looms ahead of the ceasefire deadline on Wednesday....

4 page report

The Oil Must Flow

Dubai crude sees bearish turn on ceasefire news; diverging flow between front and back-end Brent/Dubai; Dubai spread buying at $1/bbl

Fading Momentum

Brent flat price and spreads entering rangebound regime; persistent bullish momentum in RBOB futures; 3.5% barge crack hit inflection point

9 page report