Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
July Brent Declines to $104.09/bbl
Brent dips; UAE exits OPEC; UK sanctions fail to curb Russian flows; World Bank warns energy prices may surge further.
The Jul’26 Brent futures contract has declined this afternoon, from $105.79/bbl at 12:49 BST to $104.09/bbl at 16:40 BST (time of writing).
In the news, the United Arab Emirates has announced that it will leave OPEC, marking a significant blow to the oil cartel as the Iran war has revealed tensions among Gulf nations. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei stated to Reuters that the decision was made after a thorough review of the region's energy strategies. When asked whether the UAE had consulted Saudi Arabia, OPEC's dominant member, he replied that the UAE had not discussed the matter with any other country. "This is a policy decision, made after carefully considering current and future policies regarding production levels," the energy minister explained. Elsewhere, analysis shows that Prime Minister Keir Starmer's recent decision to allow the British military to board ships from Russia’s so-called "shadow fleet" has not affected the number of vessels passing through UK waters. In the month following Starmer's March 25 warning, at least 98 Russian vessels under UK sanctions travelled through UK waters, which is comparable to the number in each of the previous three months. In other news, energy prices are projected to rise by 24% in 2026, reaching their highest point since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago. However, if severe disruptions triggered by the war in the Middle East persist into May, the World Bank indicated that commodity prices could climb even higher if regional conflicts escalate and supply issues persist longer than expected, as detailed in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jul/Aug and 6-month (Jul/Jan) Brent futures spreads are at $5.38/bbl and $19.23/bbl, respectively.
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