Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Climbs to $104.07/bbl
Brent rebounds; Aramco warns Hormuz risks could cut 100mb weekly; LNG crossings resume; Trump eyes gas tax pause
The Jul’26 Brent futures contract initially fell from $104.42/bbl at 13:47 BST to $102.85/bbl at 14:58 BST, before climbing back to $104.07/bbl as 17:01 BST (time of writing).
In the news, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, stated that if the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist at the current rate and remain closed, the oil market could lose approximately 100mb each week. He added that they "expect demand rationing to continue as long as supply remains disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. If normal trade and shipping resume, we anticipate a very robust return to demand growth." Elsewhere, a second Qatari LNG tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz following an arrangement involving Iran and Pakistan, highlighting how shipments are now crossing on a case-by-case basis amid ongoing conflict risks. The vessel, Mihzem, has a capacity of 174k cubic meters and is heading northeast toward Port Qasim in Pakistan, with an expected arrival date of May 12, according to LSEG data. In the US, President Trump has told CBS News that he is considering a pause of an 18c federal gas tax for a period of time, giving no further details. This pause would take congressional cooperation, which there has been little indication of. In Japan, Deputy Director-General for Immediate Crisis Management at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Narumi Hosokawa, confirmed the arrival of the first oil cargo from Central Asia since the Iran war began in February. Japan has previously imported oil from Azerbaijan, but the shipment arriving at Yokohama today, destined for Eneos, is the first since the conflict started. Elsewhere, Hengli Petrochemical International, the former Singapore trading arm of Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, which is subject to sanctions, has announced its plans to cease operations. The winding-down process is expected to be completed by late May. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jul/Aug) and 6-month (Jul/Jan) Brent futures spreads are at $3.78/bbl and $16.97/bbl, respectively.
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