Distillates

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract initially rose to $63.01/bbl at 14:00 BST before dropping to $61.83/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters have reported that Russia’s Novorossiisk port has reached maximum export capacity, reaching 800kb/d last month. According to Reuters estimates, this level is the highest rate in at least 5 years. Elsewhere, Ukrainian economy minister Oleksii Sobolev has stated that Ukraine is considering importing American LNG, amidst struggling Russian gas infrastructure. No further details have been made public, though the energy ministry has said last week that it wants to increase Ukrainian gas imports by 30%. In the UK, foreign secretary Yvette Cooper announced sanctions against Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil. The new sanctions targets Russia’s shadow fleet and bans UK businesses or individuals from engaging in trade with the sanctioned firms. In other news, the EU has extended an invite to Serbia to join its communal gas-buying initiative, as it looks to reduce Serbian dependence on Russian fossil fuels. In Norway, the government’s Labour party has proposed to raise spending from its $2 trillion oil fund in 2026. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.19/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $61.53/bbl at 12:00 BST to $62.40/bbl before easing to $62.00/bbl at 16:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the IEA has reported a decrease in Russia’s crude oil and fuel export revenues for September, falling to $13.35bn from $13.58bn in August. Exports of refined products have dropped to their lowest level in a decade, excluding the COVID-19 period. Elsewhere, Reuters have reported that Egypt is planning to drill 480 exploratory wells with 101 of which scheduled for 2026. The development is backed by various investments totalling about $5.7bn over the course of 5 years. In India, the country’s foreign ministry has announced that a Mongolian oil refinery, backed by Indian investment, is expected to begin operations in 2028. Its expected capacity is 30kb/d and will be Mongolia’s first oil refinery. In other news, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné stated that non-OPEC crude production is likely to decline when prices fall to $60/bbl or lower, citing producer warnings about eroding shale output. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $0.24/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract fell early this afternoon, from $63.85/bbl at 12:00 BST to $63.10/bbl at 14:45 BST before recovering to $63.44 at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has estimated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries led to a 17.1% m/m decrease in September seaborne shipments. By sea, Russia exported 55.6mb of fuels in September, with ports in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas decreasing between 15-23% in shipments. Despite disruptions, OPEC monthly data has shown that Russian oil production increased by 148kb/d from August, reaching 9.3mb/d in September. Related, the October OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report has projected global oil supply in 2026 to closely mirror demand, as the wider organisation increases production. It has also maintained its forecast for a rise of 1.3mb/d in global oil demand for 2025. Elsewhere, Algerian state-owned oil and gas firm Sonatrach has made a $5.4bn exploration and production deal with Midad Energy, a Saudi Arabian firm. The deal is a 30-year contract allowing for operations in the Illizi Basin in eastern Algeria; agreements between Sonatrach, Exxon, and Chevron are on the horizon to invest their resources in the region. In other news, Chief Executive Amin Nasser has said that Saudi Aramco can maintain crude oil production at a rate of 12mb/d for a year without additional costs. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.52/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract dipped this afternoon, to $63.29/bbl at 14:20 BST before finding support to reach $64.16 at 16:00 BST. Prices then softened to $63.11/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Trump via Truth Social has threatened additional tariffs on Chinese products following China’s move to tighten export controls on rare earth metals. In Russia, Reuters reported that oil exports from Russia’s western ports are expected to remain near September’s record highs, amid increased refinery activity. October’s export estimates are anticipated to fall around 200kb/d, to 2.3mb/d. Elsewhere, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjarto has said that Hungarian oil company MOL will increase deliveries to Serbia, following US sanctions to the NIS earlier this week. The increase will not fully cover the cut of shipments from Croatia, though details have not yet been released. In China, Reuters reported that recent US sanctions on Iranian oil exports have disrupted operations at a Sinopec terminal that handles 20% of Chinese crude imports. In Greece, Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou has stated that Greece is nearing an offshore oil and gas exploration contract with Chevron and Helleniq Energy; they hope to make a deal by the end of 2025. In other news, Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has proposed granting US companies access to Venezuela’s oil and gold projects to appease the Trump Administration and prevent conflict. Finally, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $0.64/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, reaching $66.45/bbl at 14:00 BST before softening to $65.61/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, local Russian media has reported that drones allegedly attacked an oil depot in Russia’s Rostov Oblast. Confirmation of the drones’ origin have yet to been reached. Elsewhere, British Petroleum (BP) has announced the launch of its sixth major oil and gas project of 2025 in the Murlach field of the UK North Sea. This project will add a peak net production of roughly 15kb/d to BP’s ETAP in central North Sea and aims to help BP reach target production of an additional 250kb/d by the end of 2027. In India, Reuters have reported that the state-run Bharat Petroleum Corp will invest roughly $11bn into a new 180-240kb/d refinery in Andhra Pradesh. According to a state government order, 6k acres have been allocated and have asked that commercial operations begin by January 2029. In other news, Taiwan and India have been identified through LSEG data as the main destinations for Russian sea-transported naphtha exports in August. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.51/bbl and $1.01/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract initially dipped this afternoon, reaching $65.85/bbl at 15:40 BST before finding support and rising to $66.52/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russia has been slowly increasing its oil production, reaching 9.17mb/d, and was close to meeting OPEC+ output quota of 9.4mb/d in September. In his statement, Novak expressed that further diesel and domestic oil refinery restrictions were no longer needed, citing that supply and demand were balanced. Elsewhere, the US has postponed its sanctions on the Russian-owned Serbia NIS oil refinery by one week. According to Reuters, the extension comes as Croatian oil pipeline operator JANAF was given a license by the US to complete contracted volumes of crude to Serbia. In Belgium, the Port of Antwerp-Bruges has been heavily disrupted by Flemish pilots protesting federal pension reforms. In other news, Bloomberg has reported that a US government report showed a decline of around 763kb in domestic stockpiles. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract dipped this afternoon to $65.25/bbl at 14:00 BST before finding support and rising to $65.26/bbl at 17:00 BST. In the news, tanker freight rates for shipping Russian Urals crude to India has risen in late Sep and early Oct, accounting for a dramatic increase in loadings last month. Reuters reported that exports from western Russian ports to India rose by 500kb/d in Sep from Aug to 2.5mb/d. Elsewhere, Belarusian gasoline exports to Russia increased by four times m/m in Sep, due to Russian fuel shortages amid Ukrainian drone attacks. In India, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data shows that fuel consumption has hit a year’s low in Sep, by 0.5 percentage point m/m, now at 18.6/mt; Sep fuel demand, on the other hand, was up 7% y/y. Kazakhstan has said that it will increase its crude oil exports to Germany in 2026, after Kazakh national oil and gas company KazMunayGas organized a supply deal with Rosneft Deutschland. In other news, Bloomberg earlier reported that the EU plans to impose sanctions on companies that provided forged national flags for Russian shadow fleets. These sanctions are contingent upon the EU adopting a full sanction package, which requires approval from all 27 member states. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $0.94/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures fell to $65.63/bbl at 15:00 BST before recovering to $65.73/bbl at 17:00 BST and softening to $65.56/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, Denmark’s Environment Ministry has said that they are strengthening inspections on oil tankers passing through its waters, as a response to Russia’s growing shadow fleet. Elsewhere, Reuters have reported that Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery (capacity 160kb/d) has halted a crude distillation unit following Ukrainian drone attacks over the weekend; the closure is expected to take around a month. Reuters reported that more Russian crude oil has been made available for Indian refiners, as Ukrainian drone attacks hinder Russian refining capability. In other news, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad has said that a new discovery made in the Pazan gas fields of southern Iran has added 10 trillion cubic feet of gas to national reserves. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $0.84/bbl, respectively.