Naphtha

Naphtha serves as a versatile feedstock for the petrochemical industry, crucial in producing plastics, synthetic fibers, and various chemicals that contribute significantly to manufacturing and industrial processes.

Find live prices on Flux Terminal. Trade Naphtha cost-free on Onyx Markets.

European Window cover

European Window: Brent Fall to $62.41/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell in a $1.43/bbl move down to $62.53/bbl at 13:47 BST. Prices then traded between $62.40/bbl and $63.04/bbl for the rest of the afternoon and at 17:20 BST (time of writing) were trading at $62.45/bbl. The Jul’25 contract similarly fell in a $0.96/bbl drop to $64.61/bbl and traded rangebound for the rest of the afternoon. In the news, OPEC+ may consider a July oil output hike larger than the 411kb/d increases for May and June at its Saturday meeting, sources told Reuters. The move follows rising tensions over members like Kazakhstan, which has refused to cut production despite exceeding its quota for months. Saudi Arabia and Russia are reportedly using higher output to pressure over-producing allies and regain market share. In other news, US crude oil output hit a record high of 13.49mb/d in March, surpassing the previous peak from October 2024, the EIA reported. However, demand for oil products fell to a 12-month low of 19.95 mb/d, highlighting a growing gap between supply and consumption. Libyan authorities have arrested three suspects linked to a militia that broke into the National Oil Corporation (NOC) headquarters in Tripoli, demanding jobs. The incident prompted the eastern Libyan government to threaten declaring force majeure on oilfields and export terminals, citing repeated assaults on the NOC. While NOC denies the break-in, tensions persist between the rival eastern and western governments. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $1.35/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.

Read More

COT Deep Dive – Sing 380/ 3.5% Barges E/W

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 380 E/W.

Read More

COT Deep Dive – Naphtha Crack (NWE)

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 northwest Europe (NWE) naphtha crack.

Read More
Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: Bearish OP-EC-TICS

We began with yet another flat week in Brent, before prices broke into the $66/bbl handle on 29 May. This support emerged from a US Federal Court blocking President Donald Trump’s tariffs, including the pre- “Liberation Day” fentanyl tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. The Court of International Trade said the US President did not have “unbounded authority” to impose tariffs on the US’s trading partners. While the Trump administration has planned to appeal this decision, it undoubtedly brought short-lived zeal into financial markets. The US dollar index (DXY) broke above 100 this morning but has since fallen below this level. US equities surged in early trading, and while they have since softened a touch, they remain supported. As for oil, after hitting a zenith at $66.15/bbl this morning, the M1 Brent futures contract weakened to $64.25/bbl – back to its regularly scheduled programming for the past week. Some support may come from a 2.795mb draw in US crude oil inventories in the week ending 23 May, reported on 29 May. In addition, while this Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting may also provide some direction to price action, the market expects the producer group to agree on another accelerated supply hike in July, intensified by a confirmation from Kazakhstan this week. While the optics of such a hike are unequivocally bearish, OPEC+ has been overproducing. This nominal 411kb/d unwind in voluntary cuts will not result in a matching increase in actual barrels supplied to the market. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see whether the market will react strongly to the OPEC+ hike or if we’ll continue to oscillate around a low-to-mid $60s range in the coming weeks.

Read More
European Window cover

European Window: Brent Fall to $63.14/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell most afternoon to $63.14/bbl at 15:18 BST. Prices have risen slightly to $63.43/bbl at 17:40 BST(time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude inventories fell by 2.8 mb last week to 440.4 mb, defying expectations for a slight increase. Gasoline and distillate stocks also dropped by 2.4mb and 724kb, respectively. Refinery runs and utilization rates declined, while crude imports fell by 532b/d. Cushing hub inventories rose slightly by 75k/b. In other news, Libya’s eastern government may declare force majeure on oil exports due to alleged assaults on the National Oil Corporation (NOC), though NOC denies any attack. The eastern faction, aligned with General Khalifa Haftar, controls many oilfields and may relocate NOC’s HQ to safer cities it controls. Despite recent clashes in Tripoli, NOC assures operations remain unaffected. International oil firms like BP, Eni, and Weatherford have recently resumed activities in Libya after years of conflict-related withdrawal. In OPEC related news, Kazakhstan has told OPEC+ it cannot cut oil production, citing contractual limits with international consortiums that control over 70% of its output and technical challenges at older, state-run fields. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said the country may even raise output later this year. Deputy Energy Minister Alibek Zhamauov added that OPEC+ is expected to announce a new output hike at its Saturday meeting, with the exact volume to be confirmed then.Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $1.96/bbl respectively.

Read More

COT Report: At a Standstill

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

Read More
European Window cover

European Window: Brent Below $65.00/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slowly rallied up to $64.59/bbl at 14:35 BST before jumping up to $65.03/bbl at 16:43 BST. Prices have since come off to $64.65/bbl at 17:30 BST. In the news, OPEC+ has agreed to create a mechanism to set new oil production baselines for 2027, aiming to reflect countries’ true capacity amid shifting output levels. No immediate policy changes were made, but eight members may agree on Saturday to a July output increase of 411kb/d. Current output cuts remain in place, with some being gradually lifted through October. In other news, Russia may revise the $60/bbl baseline in its budget rule due to falling oil prices, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. The rule currently directs oil revenue above $60/bbl to the National Wealth Fund, while revenue shortfalls are covered when prices drop below that level. With Urals crude recently near $50/bbl and oil revenues down 24%, Russia is now projecting a larger 2025 budget deficit, 1.7% of GDP, up from 0.5%. More from Russia, where sanctioned tankers have recently been involved in ship-to-ship transfers of Russian crude that later arrived in India, Bloomberg reports. India, a top buyer of Russian oil alongside China, prohibits sanctioned vessels from unloading at its ports. Indian refiners maintain they comply with sanctions and the G7 price cap. In May, India is set to import nearly 1.8mb/d of Russian oil driven by increased purchases of lighter grades like ESPO. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.58/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.65/bbl.

Read More
European Window cover

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Bounces Back to $64.64/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures initially jumped up to $64.55 at 08:57 BST before falling to $64.09 at 09:33 BST. Prices then rallied back up to $64.64 at11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Israel has denied a New York Times report claiming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities to derail US-Iran nuclear talks. The article cited concerns among Israeli officials that President Trump may accept an interim deal allowing Iran to retain enrichment capabilities. In other news, the Trump administration has issued a limited authorization for Chevron to keep its assets in Venezuela but barred it from operating oilfields, exporting oil, or expanding activities. This follows the expiration of a broader license granted under Biden. The move aims to prevent financial support to President Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s oil output has been slowly recovering but remains low due to sanctions and mismanagement. Norwegian energy firm Okea has discovered oil at the Prince prospect in the North Sea, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. The find is estimated at 1.9mb to 17.5mb. Located near the Brage field, Okea operates the site with a 35.2% stake, alongside partners Lime Petroleum, DNO, Petrolia Novo, and M Vest Energy. Saudi Arabia may lower its July crude oil prices for Asia to the lowest in six months, according to a Reuters survey of refiners. The official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light is forecasted to drop by 40–50 cents. The move follows falling oil prices amid rising OPEC+ supply and weaker global demand. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.47/bbl respectively.

Read More
European Window cover

European Window: Brent Recovers to $64.01/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell all afternoon to $63.53/bbl at 16:39 BST. Prices have slightly recovered to $64.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is expected to announce another oil output increase for July when eight core members meet on Saturday, three group delegates told Reuters. The hike, likely to match the 411kb/d increases seen in May and June, is part of a phased unwinding of voluntary cuts as demand climbs. No policy change is anticipated at the broader group’s meeting next Wednesday. SEB analysts suggest the move is already priced into the market. In other news, a wildfire in northern Alberta has led to the evacuation of the town of Swan Hills and the temporary shutdown of local oil and gas operations. Aspenleaf Energy shut in 4kb/d of production and evacuated field staff as a precaution. The fire marks Alberta’s first significant blaze this spring, echoing past years when wildfires disrupted hundreds of thousands of barrels per day in oil production. Saudi Aramco is set to price a three-part US dollar bond next Tuesday, aiming to raise at least $500 million, according to IFR. The move is part of a broader effort to boost funding as oil prices fall and Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widens. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.53/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.40/bbl.

Read More
European Window cover

European Window: Brent Rallies $65.01/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially dropped from $64.58/bbl down to $63.41/bbl at 13:10 BST. Prices then rallied all afternoon to $65.01/bbl but slightly came off to $64.72 at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Donald Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1. EU and US trade officials are set to discuss the issue later today. The proposed tariffs triggered sharp declines in European stocks and bond yields, with economists warning of a serious escalation in trade tensions. The EU is considering countermeasures but prefers a negotiated solution. In other news, Suriname is aiming to expand its offshore oil exploration with increased interest from majors like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Petronas. TotalEnergies is leading the $10.5B GranMorgu project, expected to produce first oil in 2028 from reserves of over 750mb. The project includes a 220kb/d FPSO and is forecast to boost Suriname’s GDP by 55% in 2028, according to the IMF. Iraq’s federal government said Friday that recent energy deals signed between US companies and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) violate the constitution and must be approved by Baghdad. This comes after the KRG formalized two major agreements with HKN Energy and WesternZagros, targeting development of the Topkhana block, estimated to hold 5 trillion cubic feet of gas and 900mb of oil. Iraq’s Oil Ministry emphasized it has no issue with US firms operating in Iraq, but only through official federal channels, not directly with the KRG. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 Brent spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.63/bbl respectively

Read More

COT Deep Dive – Gasoline E/W

In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.

In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 gasoline E/W.

Read More
European Window cover

European Window: Brent Above $64.00/bbl

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.

Read More
Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: Big, Beautiful Brent

It’s been a remarkably flat week in Brent. Jul’25 is around $64.00/bbl at the time of writing on 22 May, almost exactly where it was this time last week. But what has changed? It feels like a lot has changed. OPEC+ is considering a major output hike of 411kb/d for July (three times the amount initially planned), matching increases in May and June. Brent gapped up around 60c on Tuesday as CNN reported Israel is getting ready to possibly strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to several American officials. This comes at a tense moment, as the Trump administration is still trying to negotiate a diplomatic agreement with Tehran. This report of Israel’s strike on Iran was either not believed or not cared about, likely the former, as nuclear strikes would probably perforate even the most headline-fatigued trader among us. If Brent is the calm and flat body of the swan, the product cracks are the legs frantically kicking underneath it. Margins sold off this week around $1.50/bbl initially but have recovered, with the Euro margin at $8.45/bbl at the time of writing.

Read More

COT Report: Maintaining the Margins

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

Read More
Naphtha report

Naphtha Report: East/West Heads North

This fortnight, the naphtha market saw greater weakness. NWE naphtha cracks and spreads saw notable weakness through May. The Jun’25 crack fell from -$2.65/bbl on 8 May to -$3.90/bbl by 22 May, erasing earlier gains and dropping below 2018 and 2021 seasonal levels, though still above 2023. Open interest peaked at 21.71mb on 16 May before declining to 20.70mb. Trade houses were active net sellers, offloading 1.65mb on 21 May, while refiners remained net buyers for the month, despite daily selling. Similarly, the Jun/Jul’25 NWE naphtha spread declined sharply, from $10/mt on 5 May to $6.25/mt by 22 May. Trade houses sold over 2mb of the spread between 7–15 May, later trimming positions. Majors also de-risked significantly, cutting net length from +836kb on 7 May to 685kb by 15 May, before slightly adding to reach 818kb on 21 May. Refiners sold 85kb of the spread against Onyx. Technical indicators suggest growing bearish momentum, with the -DMI line overtaking +DMI and ADX turning upward, indicating increasing trend strength…

Read More