Naphtha

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract failed to maintain strength above the $64.00/bbl handle this afternoon, easing from $64.08/bbl at 15:30 GMT to $63.60/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, local Russian emergency centres have reported a fire at Russia’s Azov Sea port of Temryuk, due to a Ukrainian drone attack. The fire occurred at the Maktren-Nafta LPG transhipment terminal, which handles LPG exports from Russian and Kazakh producers. According to Reuters, between January and October 2025, the terminal handled roughly 220kt of LPG. Elsewhere, according to The Officials sources, Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery will be in maintenance until the end of December, rather than the planned 9th of December restart date. Meanwhile, Russian ESPO blend crude loading in December has been traded at a $5-6/bbl discount to ICE Brent in Chinese ports, following a decline in demand as Chinese state refiners ceased buying due to Western sanctions. This discount marks the weakest differential on record. In other news, Reuters reported that the G7 and EU are negotiating to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a complete ban on maritime services, aiming to cut the oil revenue that supports Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. Russia exports over a third of its oil via Western tankers, mainly to India and China, using Western shipping services. The ban would effectively end this trade, which is primarily carried out by EU maritime countries, including Greece, Cyprus, and Malta. In macroeconomics, stronger-than-expected Canadian domestic jobs data has caused the Canadian dollar to strengthen the most in 6 months against the US dollar. Finally, the front-month (Feb/Mar’26) and 6-month (Feb/Aug’26) spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.01/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $62.57/bbl at 14:40 GMT to $63.50/bbl at 16:50 GMT. In the news, the Trump administration has approved transactions with Lukoil gas stations outside Russia, issuing a narrow waiver to the sanctions imposed by the US in October. According to a US Treasury Department post, these transactions are authorised until 26 April 2026. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that oil exports from Russia’s Novorossiysk and the CPC terminal were roughly 1mt behind schedule in November, due to storms and recent drone attacks that disrupted loading operations. Scheduled loadings of Urals, Siberian Light, and KEBCO crude were at 3.2mt, though actual exports reached just 2.5mt. Reuters also reported that CPC Blend oil shipments were also delayed, as two Suezmax cargoes totalling around 300kt were rolled over into December. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production decreased by 6% during the first two days of December, after a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC. According to Reuters sources, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production fell in the first two days of December to 1.9mb/d, down from the average daily output in November. In other news, weekly US jobless claims have fallen 27k to 191k; this is the lowest level since September 2022. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.97/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract initially rose from $62.77/bbl at 14:10 GMT to $63.29/bbl at 16:00 GMT, before falling to $62.68/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that remote-controlled Ukrainian explosives have struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region. This is the fifth Ukrainian attack on the pipeline this year, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia; oil supplies are reportedly running through the Druzhba as usual. Meanwhile, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has said that the country will challenge a European Union decision to phase out Russian energy sources at the EU’s Court of Justice. During a briefing broadcast, Szijjarto reinforced that implementing the order will be “impossible” for Hungary. According to Reuters, Slovakia is also considering legal options in response to the EU decision. Elsewhere, Platts has said that the Dated Brent global physical crude oil benchmark does not need significant methodology changes. The price reporting agency announced a methodology proposal to enable traders to load WTI Midland crude from various US terminals, facilitating larger shipments to Europe. It is seeking feedback by 16 January, with changes potentially taking effect next May. In other news, private Chinese refiner Hengli Petrochemical has stated that China’s oil demand is likely to remain weak for the coming months, at least until mid-2026. Recent surges in the registration of electric and LNG-fuelled vehicles have dampened Chinese demand for road transportation fuels, such as gasoline and diesel. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract failed to maintain strength above $63/bbl this afternoon, declining from $63.06/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.21/bbl at 14:55 GMT. Prices then recovered to $62.83/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Besiktas Shipping, a Turkish owner of an oil tanker that was damaged near Senegal’s coast last week after four external explosions, announced that it is suspending all shipping operations related to Russian interests. Citing safety concerns, the company said it would halt operations with Russia immediately. Elsewhere, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) aims to complete all repairs on its SPM-3 at its Black Sea terminal ahead of schedule, restoring full CPC Blend oil export capacity after drone attacks last week. According to Reuters, the mooring is expected to return within the next week, despite an initial maintenance period of two months. Its SPM-2 mooring remains offline after Ukrainian attacks over the weekend. In other news, the US has denied Serbian refinery NIS a sanctions waiver, ultimately forcing the refinery to shut down. As a temporary measure to support the refinery, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic stated that the government, risking secondary sanctions, would permit payments and transactions for the Russian-owned oil company, which is under US sanctions, until the end of the week. This step is intended to enable NIS to pay its workers and handle other transactions following the sanctions imposed by the US Treasury Department in October. Meanwhile, Romania’s coalition government has approved a decree allowing it to seize control of Lukoil’s local assets. The decree allows the government to appoint special administrators to companies if sanctions disrupt economic sectors, cause price increases, or jeopardise energy security. This appointment requires prior approval from Romania’s top defence council. In Russia, Putin has claimed that if Ukrainian attacks continue, Russia may strike Ukrainian tankers. Finally, the front-month (Feb/Mar’26) and 6-month (Feb/Aug’26) spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $0.72/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract broke the $63/bbl handle this afternoon, before easing to $62.97/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) stated that it has resumed oil shipments from Sing-Point Mooring 1 at its Novorossiysk terminal, following a Ukrainian drone attack over the weekend. The CPC accounts for approximately 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and handles more than 1% of the world’s oil. Elsewhere, former Indian foreign minister Kanwal Sibal has said that the country could reduce its Russian crude imports by 50% but noted that the nations would still seek to circumvent US sanctions to maintain oil flows. In geopolitics, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is en route to Moscow and is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week; talks will centre on a 19-point, US-backed peace framework. Ukraine has tentatively supported the peace framework, but no official agreement has been made. Meanwhile, BP’s US-based Olympic Pipeline system has resumed full operations over the weekend, with nearly 2,300 gallons of refined products recovered. However, the total amount of leaked products continued to be assessed. In Brazil, Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, announced it will raise the average jet fuel price for distributors by 3.8%, starting December 1. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.

The Feb Brent Futures has seen a stronger afternoon, trading steadily up from around $62.70/bbl to $63.24/bbl where it prints at the time of writing, 17:30 GMT…

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract traded in the $62/bbl handle this afternoon, from $62.39/bbl at 13:30 GMT to $62.80/bbl at 16:20 GMT. Prices have since settled to $62.64/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the US-proposed draft plan for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could serve as the basis for future agreements. However, he elaborated by saying that the draft still requires further modifications. Putin has also described Ukrainian leadership as illegitimate and thus not in a position to sign peace deals and reiterated his demand for international recognition of Russian gains in Ukraine, which is a strict red line for Ukraine. In other news, Reuters has reported that OPEC+ is unlikely to alter oil output levels at its meetings this weekend and is seeking to agree on a mechanism to evaluate members’ maximum production capacity. Reuters sources claim that OPEC+ is expected to maintain a pause in hikes in Q1’26. In Kurdistan, UAE-based firm Dana Gas has reported that operations have been halted at the Khor Mor gas field after a rocket attack hit a liquid storage tank, which resulted in a fire. The attack is the most serious since drone strikes at its oilfields in mid-July. The attack has reportedly not affected Kurdistan’s oil production or exports. Meanwhile, the discount of Russia’s Urals oil blend compared to Brent crude increased by six percentage points this month, reaching 23%, according to the Russian central bank. The central bank’s deputy governor, Alexei Zabotkin, said that they assume the widening discount as a “temporary phenomenon.” The discount reflects growing pressure on Russian oil revenues following Western sanctions. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $0.62/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’26 Brent futures contract climbed this afternoon, from $61.58/bbl at 14:30 GMT to $62.18/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the UK government has announced that it will allow new oil and gas production on or near existing fields, easing restrictions but dashing hopes of an early end to windfall taxes on producers. UK oil output has declined from 4.4mb/d in 2000 to around 1mb/d currently, with forecasts of output being under 150kb/d by 2050. New licenses can be granted only if linked to existing fields and infrastructure. The government retained the 38% windfall tax, part of a 78% total tax on high profits, until 2030, with industry warning this may stall projects and jobs. Elsewhere, Reuters has reported that Brazilian state-run oil firm, Petrobras, will see its first cut to its five-year investment plan due to lower oil prices. The plan, under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government, is poised to see a 2% drop in its previous $111bn capital expenditure. In other news, Reuters sources have claimed that a Western-sanctioned vessel, the Aframax vessel Tiger 6, has been delayed at a port in eastern India due to insurance verification issues. The vessel was loaded with Russian ESPO oil destined for Indian Oil Corporation; LSEG data showed the vessel floating near the Paradip port this afternoon. Earlier this year, India had tightened insurance rules for ships at its ports as it attempts to target Russian shadow fleets. In Nigeria, Argus has reported that Dangote refinery’s current fuel samples do not meet European standards, due to elevated sulphur and cetane levels. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.45/bbl, respectively.