James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
10Y & Oil Hits Correlation High, Dutch CB Moves 86T of Gold to London, Snowflake Stocks Surge
10Y-oil correlation hits GFC highs; EU gas storage low; Dutch move gold to London; S&P short interest nears 2008 peak; Snowflake soars 22%.
Correlation between the 10Y and oil is the highest since the GFC
German & Dutch gas storage levels look dangerously low heading towards winter.
The Dutch central bank moved 86 tonnes of gold out of New York and Ottawa to London. More than 1/4 of everything they held in North America. Done quietly between March and August, announced today. New York went from 31.3% of their reserves to 18.5%. London went from 18.1% to 32.1%. Stated reason is “increasing geopolitical unrest” and crisis readiness.
Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock is up to 3.2% of market cap, the highest level since 2009. This is now approaching the 2008 Financial Crisis peak of ~3.8%. By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, this percentage was ~1.7%. Furthermore, short interest among the most heavily shorted 10% of S&P 500 stocks is up to 8.0% of market cap, the highest in 8 years. Even during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst, short interest never surged to these levels. The short trade is starting to look overcrowded.
The AI economy…
Snowflake stock, surges over +22% after reporting stronger than expected earnings due to AI demand.
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