US Equities Fall, Glencore Sells 40% Stake, German 30-yr Yield

With just 3bp cuts priced by the ECB this looks too skinny. U.S. yields will move higher, dollar higher, EURUSD lower. (Chart 1, US economic surprise index vs US 2 yr yield, Bloomberg)

US Equities fall dragged by software stocks (Nasdaq -1.6%) while commodities bounce again (gold +2.5%, silver +5.9%, uranium +5.5%). U.S stocks show a rare defensive signal, Consumer Staples were up over 1.5% yesterday, technology was down over -3% at one point today. While Chipotle stock falls -11% after reporting another sharp drop in restaurant traffic. Two tier economy.

The freight market is cooking. Volumes are up 3% YoY and the highest levels since June 2024 and tender rejections are surging to 13.78%.

German 30y yield climbs to highest since 2011

Glencore agrees to sell 40% stake on its two African copper and cobalt businesses to a US government-backed group as Washington continues to seek more control over critical minerals. The deal values the 100% of the mines at $9 billion, including debt. $GLEN

Private credit falling hard, heavily invested in SAAS. As a group, the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and Carlyle are down 23% since November 2024. For years, private equity stocks moved arm-in-arm with the S&P 500. If private equity is struggling, public stocks should pay attention. (Chart 2, Software ETF vs Nasdaq composite, Bloomberg)

Americans own more stocks than ever: US household allocation to equities as a % of financial assets is up to a record 47.1%. This percentage has surged +16.6 points since the 2020 pandemic low. Since 2008, allocation to stocks by Americans has risen +142%.

Bitcoin sits on the edge of a cliff, key support $76,600. (Chart 3, Bloomberg)

Data today: EZ, UK, US Canada PMIs, EZ & UK inflation, US ADP.