Jorge Montepeque
Head of Benchmarking, Flux
The Officials reports are now published exclusively on officialsbenchmarks.com. Current subscribers to the Officials will be able to log in there automatically to access their content.
Quarterly Volumes Review – Q3 2025
Oil-derivatives trading fell year on year in Q3, signalling a shift toward longer-term, fundamentals-led positioning.
In this quarterly review We document a pronounced decline in traded oil-derivatives volumes to 232 bn bbls, versus 258 bn bbls in the same period a year prior, despite broadly stable open interest, and interpret this as evidence of a shift toward longer-duration, fundamentals-anchored speculative positioning, and away from headline driven reactive position taking.
an impact-probability model of Trump’s Truth Social posts combined with a structural VAR, we show that informational shocks which previously generated material increases in trading activity largely ceased to elicit a comparable response in Q3. Alongside the mainstreaming of sizeable forward supply surpluses and a notable dislocation in Dubai swaps, we conclude that Q3 represents a temporary episode of lower trading intensity within an otherwise robust expansion of global oil-derivatives markets, with volumes projected to resume their upward trend into 2026-27.
The Officials publish outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
We invite you to read our reports, which are published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST). For any comments, please reach out to us through the emails provided in the signed documents.
More News
Physical Goes Negative
Forties selling weighs on Dated; Iran strikes lift Brent futures, widening gap between paper strength and weak physical.
Brent Bounces Back to $82.97/bbl
US considers oil tanker support in Middle East, Russia unable to benefit from oil price surge, Aramco seeks to export oil via Red Sea
4 page report
Supply Shock and Roll
War news jolts Brent/Dubai; Platts Gulf changes hit spreads. Dubai strong front-month, but April hinges on conflict duration.