Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
Brent above $98/bbl
Trump warns Iran; tensions persist as Hormuz remains controlled, tankers hesitate, and Libya reports new oil and gas discoveries.
Published: April 9, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
4 page report
The Jun'26 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning, from $96.31/bbl at 01:21 BST to $98.20/bbl at 11:29 (time of writing)...
President Donald Trump said all US military assets would remain deployed until Iran complies with what he called “the real agreement,” warning that if compliance fails, though he claimed that is unlikely, conflict would escalate dramatically, while insisting on no Iranian nuclear weapons and guaranteed security of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Iran’s atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami rejected any limits on uranium enrichment, directly contradicting US claims that a ceasefire arrangement includes a zero-enrichment condition. Diplomatic engagement showed slight movement as the Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers held their first call since the war began, discussing de-escalation and regional stability following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh condemned Israel’s actions in Lebanon as a “grave violation” of the ceasefire, accusing it of carrying out a surprise attack and urging the US to choose definitively between pursuing peace or continuing conflict through its regional allies. Two Chinese oil tankers carrying Iraqi and Saudi crude approached the Strait of Hormuz before stopping at its entrance, signalling that vessel may be cautiously testing transit conditions following the US-Iran ceasefire. Despite the agreement, Iran continues to control passage through the chokepoint, requiring approval for transit and keeping shipping firms wary amid limited clarity and ongoing security risks. Libya’s NOC announced new oil and gas discoveries with Eni, Repsol, and Sonatrach across offshore and onshore basins, including strong gas flows offshore and steady oil output in the Murzuq Basin. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jun/Jul'26 and Jun/Dec'26 Brent futures spreads stand at $5.72/bbl and $18.00/bbl, respectively.
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