Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Bounces Back to $82.97/bbl
US considers oil tanker support in Middle East, Russia unable to benefit from oil price surge, Aramco seeks to export oil via Red Sea
The May’26 Brent Futures contract saw a volatile afternoon, trading between $82.45/bbl and $84.79/bbl. Prices fell in a $1.64 move to $81.62/bbl at 16:46 GMT, but quickly bounced back to $82.97/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
The sudden drop in price came after a Reuters headline stating that the US is considering oil tanker support to ease Middle East crude shipments. In the news, Russia has been unable to benefit from the surge in global oil prices as Ukrainian drone attacks and severe winter storms disrupt exports. The Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk suspended loadings after a strike caused fires and damage, halting shipments of up to 500kb/d. Icy conditions have also reduced capacity at Baltic ports Primorsk and Ust-Luga, while seizures of “shadow fleet” tankers add pressure. Limited rerouting options via the CPC and halted Druzhba pipeline flows further constrain exports. Although Urals prices have risen, Russia’s export capacity remains restricted, worsening budget strains despite near-record shipments from Kozmino in the Far East. In other news, Saudi Aramco is seeking to reroute crude exports to its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu via the East-West Pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks have slowed shipping. The pipeline can carry 5mb/d, though Saudi output exceeds 10mb/d, limiting flexibility. Aramco has told some buyers to load Arab Light crude at Yanbu as it tries to avoid production cuts. However, analysts warn of logistical constraints and security risks. The move follows a drone attack that shut Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, amid wider regional disruptions driving oil and gas prices higher. Finally, at the time of writing, the front month May/Jun’26 spread is at $3.41/bbl and the 6-month May/Nov’26 spread is at $11.41/bbl.
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