Brent breaks above $100/bbl for the first time since July

In the news today, the CPC oil terminal on the Black Sea was reportedly attacked by drones overnight. Trading sources have reported that damage to the terminal is limited. Ukrainian drones also struck an oil terminal in Russia's Novorossiysk, with NASA FIRMS satellite imagery showing multiple heat signatures at Novorossiysk. Sinopec's research arm, the Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute, said in a report that China's oil demand is expected to drop 8.9% in 2026 (or by 600kb/d), which would mark a third consecutive year of decreases. Gasoline and diesel are expected to drive this drop in demand by 8.7% and 11.4% y/y, respectively, while jet fuel demand is expected to rise by 1.3% y/y. In the Persian Gulf, a Panama-flagged tanker carrying 2mb of Iraqi fuel oil was struck by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters, as per FinSquawk. Iraqi rescue boats extinguished the fire aboard the tanker, according to port officials. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.92/bbl and $16.30/bbl, respectively.

Relatively quiet opening in Dated Brent. We saw sell-side interest in 11-17/9 DBL, although trades were 50c higher than yesterday's close, with better buying of 14-18/9 v Cal Oct emerging from refiners and a trade house. 12-16/10 continued to see buy-side interest in 1w and 2w, whilst 8-14/10 and 6-12/10 v Cal Oct were both bid. Balmo DFL bounced back from the lows of yesterday up to $9.40/bbl, whilst strength followed in Oct/Nov DFL, trading up 20c to $1.25/bbl.

This morning, Brent/Dubai gapped lower again, with an overnight move higher in Dubai spreads. The Oct'26 Brent/Dubai opened at -$0.20/bbl, and traded range-bound between -$0.54/bbl and $0.00/bbl. There was continued trade house buying on dips. The Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread opened around $5.40/bbl, and also traded range-bound between $5.30/bbl and $5.60/bbl. The Oct/Nov'26 Brent/Dubai box moved lower again with the strength in Dubai spreads, moving down from -$2.00/bbl to -$2.30/bbl. The physical window priced very strong, with the Balmo pricing around $25.00/bbl; however, majors are offering the Balmo spread next day pricing at around $17.50/bbl.

The market felt more liquid this morning; Sing 0.5% was mixed this morning. Oct/Nov'26 initially traded up from $37.00/mt to $37.50/mt before being offered down on screen to $36.50/mt during and after the window. Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded slightly higher at $27.25/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack opened slightly higher around $20.20/bbl, but as the morning progressed, it encountered real selling, closing the window out at $19.65/bbl and then selling down to $19.05/bbl post-window. Euro 0.5% spreads remained thin this morning, with Oct/Nov'26 trading down from $17.25/mt to $16.50/mt; Oct'26 Euro crack traded around $3.30/bbl.

380 complex was stronger this morning on higher crude, particularly Oct/Nov'26, which saw most of the volume. It opened higher at $19.50/bbl before getting aggressively bid up to $22.50/mt by window open; it continued to rally during and after the window and last traded at $25.00/mt. Oct'26 380 crack traded up from -$5.05/bbl and topped out at -$3.85/bbl before selling back down to -$4.15/bbl. Barge spreads were not active this morning. Oct '26 Barge crack was offered this morning, selling off from -$11.75/bbl to -$12.20/bbl; 380 E/W was therefore implied considerably higher, from $44.50/mt to $52.00/mt, where it last traded.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads had buying in the deferred, with Jan/Jun'27 trading up at $17.95/bbl. E/W saw buying in Dec'26 at -$76.50/mt, while Oct'26 was bid up to -$91.00/mt into the end of the window. Regrade saw good buying in Oct'26 and Nov'26 post-window, with Oct'26 up to -$2.40/bbl, while Nov'26 was lifted to $1.45/bbl.

ICE gasoil spreads firmed overall, with Oct/Nov'26 from $68.00/mt up to $71.00/mt, while Nov'26 cracks rallied to $76.80/bbl.

This morning, gasoline was better offered. 92 MOC had better sell-side interest, and $92.00/bbl cracks got sold down from $25.50/bbl to $24.25/bbl. Spreads came off as well, with Oct/Nov'26 trading down from $8.35/bbl to $8.00/bbl, pushing front E/W down from -$6.90/bbl to -$7.50/bbl. EBOB weakened as well into the window, with Oct'26 easing from $32.25/bbl to $31.10/bbl before bouncing back to $31.90/bbl. Spreads were well offered; Sep/Oct'26 got sold down from $80.50/mt to lows of $72.00/mt.

This morning, naphtha was stronger overall, with both MOC and E/W better bid, while front NWE cracks and MOPJ spreads were initially offered. MOPJ were supported as the morning progressed, with backend cracks bid via flat price as Q1'27 traded around $769.00/mt. Spreads were scale-back offered on higher crude, with Nov/Dec'26 at $32.00/mt, Nov/Jan'27 pricing up to $58.00/mt and Oct/Dec'26 at $62.00/mt. E/W was well bid across the curve and stronger versus last night, with Oct'26 up to $62.00/mt and Q4'26 at $60.50/mt. NWE naphtha was softer on cracks, with Oct'26 moving down to -$4.10/bbl before recovering to -$3.85/bbl, Q4'26 around -$4.00/bbl and Q1'27 around -$4.75/bbl, while the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll traded at $0.43/bbl. Spreads stayed illiquid other than Dec/Jan'27, which traded around $19.25/mt.

This morning in NGLs, FEI was bid with FP trading at $841/mt at the end of the window. Spreads were supported, with Oct/Dec trading at $74/mt and Dec/Jan trading at $26.50/mt. The arb came off on FEI strength, trading down to -$397/mt in Oct, with Euro arb trading -$190/mt. FEI/CP was similarly bid, with Oct trading at $197/mt and Nov trading at $174/mt. There was LST/CP buying as well in both Oct and Nov, which caused CP to sell off, trading down from $652/mt to $646/mt in Oct, with Oct/Nov CP trading at $13/mt. The C3 E/W was supported on the back of FEI strength, with Oct trading at $206/mt and Q4 trading at $143/mt.

Incredible quote by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “I am the house now”.

China's central bank bought +20 tonnes of gold in August, matching its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and marking its 22nd straight month of buying - lifting 2026 additions to +80 tonnes and total reserves to a record 2,387 tonnes (76.73 million ounces), versus just +29 tonnes for all of 2025. China continues to stockpile gold at a historic pace. Meanwhile China US Treasury Bond holdings Q2 2026: $633B* Q1 2025: $784B *Latest reading per Bloomberg.

Beijing is injecting ¥360 billion into eight major banks and insurers - its largest financial-sector recapitalisation in nearly two decades - as record bank lending contraction and a Lehman-level credit impulse slump expose weakening credit creation, strengthening the plumbing without answering whether growth can actually be revived.

With an August trade surplus of $119 billion, China is on track to set a new annual record, eclipsing last year’s eye-popping $1.2 trillion. Also striking: The scale of the underlying growth: exports jumped 25%, and imports rose 28%; all against a backdrop of greater global protectionism.

The UK government paid a 5.82% yield on its £4.25 billion bond issuance today, the highest ever recorded by the Debt Management Office. Amazon is launching its debt sterling bond offering, illustrating how US tech giants are increasingly diversifying into international bond markets.
Tech, hhhmmmm!