Brent Climbs as Trump Threatens to Hit Iran “Hard”

In the news, President Trump has described Iran’s overnight strikes in Jordan as a surprise attack, stating that US forces had only a few minutes’ warning to intercept the incoming missiles. Trump added that the US would “be hitting them hard,” according to a Fox correspondent. The Trump administration has also imposed another round of Iran-related sanctions today, targeting 8 tankers and 10 entities, according to the US Treasury Department. The measures are the latest in Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at Iran’s oil trade and shadow fleet, with the Treasury seeking to restrict revenues it says fund Tehran’s weapons programmes and regional proxies. Elsewhere, Russia is preparing to extend its diesel export ban by another month, though the restriction could be lifted in mid-August if domestic fuel supply conditions improve, according to Reuters sources. The ban was introduced on 08 July and is part of broader measures to stabilise the domestic fuel market after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries triggered shortages and price spikes. Moscow had already imposed export restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel. In India, Indian Oil Corp (IOC) is seeking to acquire a 50% stake in VLGCs as it prepares to increase LPG imports from the US, according to a tender document. The move would make IOC the first Indian refiner to own LPG carriers, reducing its reliance on time-chartered vessels for transporting LPG and crude. In other news, EIA statistics for the week ending 24 Jul show a -7.2mb draw in US crude oil stocks, taking stocks to ~4% below the 5-year average. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr’27) Brent futures spreads are at $2.61/bbl and $8.86/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon we traded rangebound, some selling in Aug and Sep Brent/Dubai by trade, buying by refiner. The Aug Brent/Dubai traded between $5.95/bbl to $6.40/bbl. There was some buying of Oct/Dec Dubai spread around $0.98/bbl. Other boxes also traded rangebound, some selling by trade in Oct/Dec box around $1.50/bbl. The Q1 was also offered at $2.70/bbl.

VLSFO continued to power up this afternoon. The Aug Sing crack traded up to $23.90/bbl, where it then finished the day. Spreads were supported on higher crude, which saw Aug/Sep Sing trade up to $52.00/mt. Aug/Sep Euro remained weaker relative to rest of curve, Aug/Sep Euro traded down to $32.00/mt while the rest of the curve remained supported. The crack was also a touch weaker in August down to $9.75/mt.

380 E/W continued to be better bid this afternoon. Aug 380 E/W traded up to $50.00/mt while cracks weakened. Barge cracks traded down to -$10.20/bbl while the 380 crack closed the afternoon around -$2.30/bbl. The weakness was in barges, Aug/Sep barges traded down to $8.00/mt while Aug/Sep 380 remained steadfast around $21.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw strong buying in Sep/Oct, trading from $9.40/bbl up to $9.75/bbl before moving lower as ICE gasoil came off, last at $9.50/bbl. E/W weakened overall, with Aug down to -$73.50/mt, while Oct was hit at -$65/mt. Kero spreads saw some support, with Aug/Sep trading up to $4.45/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed early afternoon before coming off into the end window, with Sep/Dec trading up to highs of $208/mt before moving back down to $204/mt. Sep cracks continued higher, reaching $74/bbl. European jet diffs moved lower in the front, with Aug hit down to $49/mt, while the Sep/Dec box traded down to -$19/mt. Heating oil spreads remained rangebound, while HOGOs sold off, with the Aug HOGO swap down to 21.5c/gal.

This afternoon gasoline was weaker overall. RBBRs came off, pushing Aug arbs down from 24.50c/gal to lows of 21.50c/gal, with Q4’s offered down to 22c/gal. EBOB drifted lower, down to $38/bbl in Aug, before rebounding during the window up to $38.80/bbl, and Q4 was trading at $19/bbl. Spreads were mixed and Aug/Sep was offered, trading down from $75/mt to $73.50/mt. E/W rallied from -$11.20/bbl to -$10/bbl with a tradehouse bidding Aug 92 cracks up to $28/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha, MOC flipping from better offered to better bid during window. Aug crack trades up to $0.40/bbl but then majors came in sell-side of the Aug crack, hitting $0.20/bbl and $0.05/bbl – seeing crack valued -$0.10/bbl by end of window, but bouncing back again slightly post-window. Crack rolls pricing higher this afternoon seeing buying at Sep/Oct at crack roll at $2.10/bbl – implied $2.30/bbl end of window. Decent size buying in the April/May'27 E/W box at $1/mt this afternoon. Buying in Q4 E/W at $37.25/mt post-window from a trade, getting hit.

This afternoon in NGLs, Dec/Dec FEI was sold early on at $85/mt, before strengthening to print $88.50/mt by the end of the afternoon. Aug/Sep closed the afternoon trading at $38/mt, down $1 from the opening level of the day. There was also some Dec/Jan FEI buying at $14/mt. Q4 LST/FEI with buyside interest once more today, getting lifted at -$249/mt and -$250/mt, where it settled into the close. There was also good buying of FEI/MOPJs in Q4 trading at -$67/mt and -$69/mt, where it settled post-window. There was also some Q1 FEI/MOPJ buying at -$63/mt, down $3 from yesterday’s closing level. It was a relatively quiet afternoon in LST today, but we had some deferred spread selling with Q1/2'27 trading at both 5.375c/gal and 5.25c/gal. In butane, Aug/Sep C4 ENT opened the afternoon getting lifted at 0.75c/gal, before weakening to 0.625c/gal across the afternoon. There was also some good Oct/Dec C4 ENT buying at 1.5c/gal. C4/C3 LST trading in Sep at 32.5c/gal, before strengthening to 32.75c/gal by the close.