Brent Eases as Trump Looks to Ease Methane Rules

In the news, US President Trump will use a campaign stop in Texas today to unveil a plan easing methane rules for oil and gas producers, aiming to show voters he is working to lower gasoline prices a week before the midterms. The plan would give relief to small, low-output wells, end a program that relied on outside groups to report large methane leaks, and loosen rules meant to phase out routine flaring of gas at oil wells. Elsewhere, French fuel retailers will not have to replace diesel released from the country's strategic reserves under a new government scheme, following a decision by Prime Minister Lecornu. France is expected to begin releasing 10mb of diesel on 01 Nov to ease pump prices. Under the new mechanism, retailers will buy the diesel below market prices to cut costs at the pump, replacing the previous system in which stocks were lent to retailers and repurchased about a month later. In other news, the Houthis have said that they struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the attack started a fire at the complex, which also includes a shipping terminal on the Gulf, west of the Strait of Hormuz. The group also claimed attacks on Saudi military aircraft and said it repelled an advance by Saudi-backed forces near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key Red Sea shipping route. Saudi authorities have not yet confirmed the strike. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’27) and 6-month (Dec/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $4.26/bbl and $18.08/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon, we saw this morning's trend persist with the prompt leading the Dated complex lower. Nov'26 DFL slid from $8.00/bbl to $6.40/bbl, with size going through at $7.35/bbl, before bouncing to $6.75/bbl at the end of the window, last $6.70/bbl, while Nov/Dec'26 DFL came off sharply from $1.40/bbl to $0.35/bbl. Dec'26 DFL was offered lower from $6.79/bbl to $6.05/bbl, with selling at $6.75/bbl and $6.60/bbl and size going through at $6.20/bbl; $6.36/bbl at the end of the window and last $6.30/bbl. Nov/Dec'26 Dated slid from a $5.65/bbl high to $4.55/bbl against buying, while Dec/Jan'27 Dated climbed from $4.80/bbl to $5.10/bbl at the end of the window despite selling.

The physical window was busy: a trade house and a producer offered WTI Midland cargoes across the belly and the deferred part of the curve, and a Major offered Oseberg across the curve, all aggressively, taking the physical differential down by almost $3. The paper had sold off into it, the DFLs making their lows just before 16:00, and steadied through the window itself.

The days market was active. Dec'26 v 17-23 Dec'26 was bought by real players at $1.38/bbl in size and 04-08 Jan'27 v Jan'27 paid at $1.33/bbl pre-window. We also saw a large 23-27 Nov'26 v 14-18 Dec'26 sale at $4.50/bbl and Nov'26 v 27 Nov'26-17 Dec'26 hit at $3.50/bbl, while 23-27 Nov'26 Dated was sold down from $117.30/bbl to $115.05/bbl at the end of the window, with selling at $116.00/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we ground higher in a fairly tight range, the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai trading between -$2.08/bbl to -$1.72/bbl. There was some late Chinese selling of Dec'26 Brent/Dubai around -$2.10/bbl. The Dubai spreads traded with Brent spreads, the Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread up to $4.17/bbl before coming off to $3.81/bbl, with a trade house buying around $4.08/bbl and $3.89/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 box traded between $0.15/bbl to $0.32/bbl, with tradehouse buying of Jan/Feb'27 box at $0.08/bbl and smalls tradehouse buying of Q2'27 and Cal'27 Brent/Dubai.

Sing 0.5 saw real buying this afternoon, while Euro 0.5 was slightly better bid but did not keep pace with its eastern counterpart. Nov/Dec'26 Sing was bid up from $35.00/mt to $36.50/mt before selling back down to $36.00/mt pre window, it traded back up to $36.25/mt in the window, Dec/Jan'27 continued to trade around $37.00/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack was aggressively bid up from $27.10/bbl to $28.10/bbl pre window it continued to rally during and after the window trading up to $28.45/bbl, Nov'26 0.5 E/W traded 5 dollars higher at $185.25/mt. Euro spreads remained thin this afternoon with Nov/Dec'26 trading between $14.75/mt and $15.00/mt while Dec/Jan'27 traded 50c lower to $13.75/mt in low volume, Nov'26 Euro crack initially sold down 25c to -$1.45/bbl before turning better bid and trading up to -$1.00/bbl by window start and then to -$0.70/bbl post window.

380 complex was better bid this afternoon, 380 spreads traded in large volume with Nov/Dec'26 trading up from $56.50/mt to $58.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 was bid up a dollar to $42.00/mt, Nov'26 380 crack was bid up on screen from $9.75/bbl to $10.80/bbl by window start and then traded 20c higher to $11.00/bbl in the window. Barge spreads traded at similar levels to this morning with Nov/Dec'26 and Dec/Jan'27 trading at $28.25/mt and $26.00/mt respectively, Nov'26 Barge crack traded 40c lower to -$8.20/bbl before getting bid back up to -$8.40/bbl in the window, Nov'26 380 E/W traded 4 dollars higher to $121.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were scale back bid on lower ICE gasoil, with Nov/Dec'26 trading down to $2.90/bbl. E/W was well supported off the back of this, lifting up to -$130.00/mt on screen, while Q4'27 E/W was offered down to -$52.00/mt. Regrade saw selling in the deferred, Q4'26 trading at $2.25/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $46.00/mt down to $41.75/mt, while Dec'26 futures cracks weakened from $75.00/bbl down to $73.90/bbl. European jet diffs sold off in the front, Nov'26 hit from $110.00/mt down to $106.50/mt as Nov/Dec'26 weakened to -$16.00/mt.

This afternoon gasoline was mixed. RBBRs were choppy and interest on arbs was thin. EBOB cracks remained relatively range-bound, trading between $17.30/bbl and $17.60/bbl, with Cal'27 valued at $20.55/bbl. Spreads continued to see better sellside interest, with Nov/Dec'26 coming off from $38.00/mt to $36.00/mt. E/W traded up to highs of $3.90/bbl before coming off to $3.75/bbl before the window as Nov/Dec'26 went better offered at $6.50/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha was softer overall, with MOC balanced and front cracks and spreads coming under pressure before a modest post-window recovery. NWE Nov'26 cracks eased from -$4.60/bbl this morning to -$4.70/bbl post-window after trading at -$4.75/bbl, with most interest in prompt crack rolls, as Nov/Dec'26 firmed to $0.61/bbl and Dec/Jan'27 stayed around -$0.10/bbl; spreads softened, with Nov/Dec'26 recovering from $41.00/mt to $42.00/mt post-window versus $43.25/mt this morning, Dec/Jan'27 at $25.50/mt and Jan/Feb'27 at $28.00/mt. E/W saw stronger sell-side interest, with Nov'26 falling from $76.00/mt this morning to $71.00/mt before ending at $72.00/mt, while the Nov/Dec'26 box was -$1.00/mt and Q1'27 eased to $60.00/mt. MOPJ cracks were thin, with Nov'26 cracks after trading at $3.35/bbl pre-window, while Q1'27 was valued near $0.80/bbl; spreads also softened, with Nov/Dec'26 recovering from $39.75/mt lows to $40.50/mt post-window and Dec/Jan'27 at $35.25/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI structure weakened with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading at $55.00/mt and $56.00/mt, which was down from highs of $61.00/mt this morning. Dec/Jan'27 FEI traded at $48.00/mt down from $50.00/mt and $52.00/mt levels traded this morning. Dec/Dec'26 FEI also weakened trading at $293.00/mt compared to $300.00/mt and $303.00/mt this morning.

Off the back of a weaker FEI, Dec'26 FEI/CP was also weaker, trading at $204.00/mt before stepping down to $198.00/mt. Q2'27 FEI/CP traded at $102.00/mt down to $100.00/mt. FEI/MOPJs were also weaker this afternoon Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ traded back at -$40.00/mt this afternoon, down from -$35.00/mt this morning.

The arb was stronger this afternoon, with Nov'26 LST/FEI trading up to -$372.00/mt and printing -$375.00/mt by the close. The Q1'27 arb traded at -$270.00/mt this afternoon, up from -$280.00/mt around midday. There was also large importer buying of the EPC/FEI. The Jan'27-Sept strip traded for size at -$230.00/mt. LST spreads were slightly weaker this afternoon but stronger relative to FEI. Nov/Dec'26 LST traded to 1.50c/gal after opening around 1.75c/gal. Q1/Q2'27 LST traded at 15.875c/gal at the US open before softening to 15.375c/gal by the European window.

Butane continued to rally today. Nov/Dec'26 Butane traded at 10.00c/gal, up from 8.75c/gal yesterday. There was some selling of the Dec'26 C4/C3 ENT at 56.875c/gal. Dec/Jan'27 Butane also traded at 9.75c/gal.