Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
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Brent support at $116 with hostilities unsolved
Brent up to $116/bbl on fears of renewed geopolitical hostilities; Trump plans to dial back federal requirements to cut methane emissions
Published: October 27, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
The Dec’26 Brent crude futures strengthened this morning from the $114.50/bbl level, reaching highs of $116.94/bbl before retreating towards $116/bbl by 09:30 GMT (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
In the news, President Trump is set to unveil a plan to dial back federal requirements designed to slash methane emissions from oil and gas operations, where Trump’s EPA estimates its proposal would yield some $45 billion in savings while enabling production of an additional 210mb of oil and 1.41 trillion cubic feet of natural gas between 2027 and 2050. Marathon’s 631kb/d Galveston Bay refinery reported a compressor trip that resulted in a unit upset and associated flaring last week, according to a filing from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality on Monday. The UK government could grant licenses to a small number of "urgent" tieback projects – designed to extend lifespans of existing oil and gas fields – before new tieback legislation is introduced. India has faced no pressure from the US to reduce its Russian crude imports, oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday at an industry event. Swiss engineering company Sulzer on Tuesday said it had signed a five-year alliance with Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA to develop key industrial infrastructure in the country and contribute to economic growth. Dangote refinery’s IPO has secured enough commitments from Nigerian and retail investors to meet its fundraising target, which as attracted about $1.5 to $1.6bn of fully funded commitments from domestic and retail investors alone. Finally, the Dec/Jan’27 and Dec/Jun’27 Brent futures spreads are at $4.91/bbl and $19.48/bbl respectively.
Crude Oil
Choppy morning, with November leading the Dated complex lower after an early spike. Nov DFL ran up from $9.25 to $9.45/bbl, with size going through at $9.34, before falling to $8.87 despite tradehouse buying at $9.40, with heavy volume at $9.10/bbl on the way down; last $8.92/bbl, roughly 20c under last night’s close. Dec DFL followed, slipping from $7.15 in size to $7.03, while Jan held $4.50/bbl and Jan/Feb DFL traded $0.89/bbl. Dec Dated edged up from $113.80 to $113.83/bbl. Further down the curve, Q2'27 DFL traded $2.61/bbl.
In the days market, 02-06 v 09-13 Nov was picked up at $0.75/bbl in size and 16-20 Nov v Cal Nov was paid up from -$0.20 to -$0.15/bbl on real buying. Also saw Dec v 04-08 Jan going at $4.15/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
380 spreads have traded at similar levels to yesterday evening while cracks saw buying, Nov/Dec 380 opened 75c higher at $57.00/mt before selling down to $55.50/mt pre window and then rebounding to $56.50/mt, Dec/Jan saw buying from $40.00/mt up to $41.50/mt, Nov 380 Crack opened 30c higher at $9.45/bbl and was then bid up on screen to $9.75/bbl post window. The Barge complex was very thin again this morning, Nov/Dec traded at $28.50/mt post window while Nov crack has traded between -$8.50/bbl and -$8.30/bbl and Dec crack at -$8.75/bbl.
It was another thin morning in Fuel, Sing 0.5 structure strengthened while Euro 0.5 was very illiquid. Nov/Dec Sing opened at $33.00/mt and was bid up to $34.50/mt by window open it then rallied a further 50c to $35.00/mt in the window, Dec/Jan traded a dollar higher to $37.00/mt. After weakening yesterday, Nov Sing crack was better bid this morning, trading up from $26.00/bbl to $26.55/bbl pre window before getting bid up on screen to $26.90/bbl in the window and then to $27.10/bbl post window, Nov 0.5 E/W is yet to trade but is implied 4 dollars higher at $180.00/mt. Feb Euro crack selling implied Euro spreads higher with Nov/Dec and Dec/Jan at $15.50/mt and $14.50/mt respectively, Nov Euro crack is implied 45c higher at -$1.20/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Distillates
This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw some buying into Q1, with Dec/Jan lifted up to $5.10/bbl. Front E/W was mixed, Nov trading between -$132/mt and -$135/mt, while Q1 was offered at -$90.50/mt. Regrade was bid in the front at $0.40/bbl, as Q1 was also bid at $2.50/bbl.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied initially before selling off, with Nov/Dec trading from $62 up to $68, now back at $64/mt, while Dec futures cracks rallied to highs of $77.50/bbl before selling back down to $75.5/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
This morning in gasoline we saw a similar pattern to yesterday where 92 opened up very well bid before softening post window. MOC was bid for size and we saw majors lifting cracks up to highs of $22.50/bbl in Nov before they got sold back down to $20.75/bbl by trade houses. Spreads were also very strong, with Nov/Dec getting bid up from $5.75/bbl to $6.70/bbl. E/W was volatile, trading up from $2.25/bbl to $3/bbl, back down to $1.75/bbl and then recovered again post window. EBOB opened a touch higher than where it closed, at $18.65/bbl, and then remained rangebound around that level, with Nov/Dec seeing better selling interest at $40/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Naphtha
This morning in naphtha started strong before retracing from the highs, with MOC bid late on and spreads staying supported as Brent trended higher. MOPJ saw heavy Jan crack selling from $2.60/bbl up to $2.8/bbl early on, around $0.60/bbl above last night, while Dec eased from $3.85/bbl to $3.65/bbl post-window and Q1 traded at $1.40/bbl; spreads-wise, Nov/Dec held around $43/mt, Nov/Jan traded at $80/mt and Feb/Mar at $33/mt. Nov E/W rose from $76/mt last night to $77.50/mt before returning to $76/mt; boxes priced down on relative backend strength, with the Nov/Dec box down from flat to -$0.50/mt, Dec/Jan at $10/mt, Jan/Feb at $5/mt and Cal'28 at $27/mt. NWE naphtha Nov cracks improved from -$4.85/bbl last night to -$4.5/bbl before ending around -$4.60/bbl, whilst the Nov/Dec crack roll firmed from $0.40/bbl to $0.45/bbl. Spreads remained thin, with Nov/Dec unchanged at $43.25/mt and Jan/Mar at $57.25/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This morning in NGLs, FEI structure gapped up before stabilising into end window. Nov/Dec FEI gapped up overnight to $59/mt from $56/mt yesterday and then traded up to $61/mt pre window. This was mianly due to continued Chinese buying. However, we found some Asian tradehouse selling of deferred spreads with Apr/Jun trading at $65/mt and Nov/Dec FEI fell to $58/mt to close. FEI/MOPJ continued to be strong this morning with Q1 FEI/MOPJ trading at highs of -$30/mt and -$27/mt before seeing selling at -$37.5/mt to close. FEI/CP was stronger this morning with Nov/ FEI/CP trading at $280/mt up from $277/mt pre window. Dec FEI/CP traded at highs of $220/mt before stepping back down to $213/mt. The Arb was choppy this morning after falling overnight. Nov LST/FEI traded at -$406/mt at the open before finding real buying pushing it up to -$390/mt by the close. Dec LST/FEI traded at lows of -$360/mt before trading up to -$345/mt to close. End window, Nov FEI was trading $1040/mt on screen where there was London trade buying.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Morning Macro
Junk bond stress is building Yields on CCC-rated and lower US high-yield bonds have hit 18.0%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic. That's up 500 basis points in six months, the steepest rise since the 2022 bear market. In 2008, this yield peaked at 45.0%. Spreads over Treasuries have widened 464 basis points to 13.4%, the widest since July 2020 and above the 2022 peak of 12.8%.
Property investment in China dropped -21% YoY in the first 9 months of 2026, its largest decline for this period of the year on record. This marks a deterioration from a -20% YoY decline in the first 8 months of 2026. The latest drop is also significantly worse than the -16% decline recorded during the 2020 pandemic. Property investment in China has now contracted every month since 2022, its longest declining streak on record.
Germany, where business optimism is rising faster than reality. Ifo expectations improved for a 6th straight month to 91.6 (vs 90.0 expected)
Brazil's 10Y Government Bond Yield is now pushing 16%. That's a +300 basis point gain in a single day.
People love talking about crashes, but they’re wrong 99% of the time. Even so, this is from an ex-Tudor portfolio manager…. Bubbles and crashes are inherently difficult to time. Always this time is different, earnings forever etc etc. But the one constant is the psychology, meaning the price action of bubbles is uncannily similar. With that in mind, I'm watching the price action of tech, and the semi-conductor index (SOX) in particular. There is a lot rhyming with the fibre optics boom in the late 90's.
Anthropic officially files its S-1 registration statement for an IPO, seeking to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol. $ANTP.
For the first time in history, Chinese automakers have outsold their Japanese rivals in Europe over an entire quarter.
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