Brent eases from above $102/bbl despite EIA-reported crude draw

In the news, US crude inventories fell by 3.2mb to 424.10 mb last week, sharply against expectations for a 1.7 mb build, as refinery runs and exports increased. Refinery utilisation rose to 92.7%, while crude exports jumped 1.2 million bpd to 4.77 million bpd, driving much of the draw. Gasoline stocks unexpectedly increased by 382 kb, while distillates were broadly unchanged, though both remain historically low for this time of year. In other news, QatarEnergy expects the first LNG train of its North Field East expansion to be ready for operation in November, with LNG production potentially beginning in Q1 2027. The milestone comes as Qatar works to recover from Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan that damaged two LNG trains and temporarily removed 17% of the country’s LNG capacity. While QatarEnergy previously targeted first production in H1 2027, ongoing disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping remains a key constraint. Repairs to the damaged trains could take up to three years, although Qatar expects broader gas operations to normalise once the strait reopens. Finally, at the time of writing, the front Dec/Jan’27 spread is at $2.82/bbl and the six-month Dec/Jun’ 27 spread is at $11.51/bbl.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we saw Balmo Oct'26 DFL trade up to $15.15/bbl in the window, with Exxon bidding a Forties cargo and hence pushing up the physical diff despite no cargo bids from the trade that has been supporting the physical recently. In the paper window, we saw trades and majors buying CFDs again, with 19-23 Oct'26 CFD lifted up to $12.10/bbl. Post window, we saw Nov/Dec'26 DFL sell off despite strong roll buying, with 9-13 Nov/Cal Nov'26 bought at $0.76/bbl in good size. Further down the curve, we saw a major selling Q1'27 vs Q2'27 DFL roll down to $0.50/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, we continued to be quiet in Brent/Dubai. There was small selling of Dec'26 ICE vs Oct'26 Dub and Nov'26 Brent swap vs Oct'26 Dub, which allowed selling of the Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread by a major to be absorbed by market makers. The Brent/Dubai traded lower into close, as we saw selling by Chinese of the Dec/Jan'27 Brent/Dubai box. All interest was on screen, on very low volumes. The Dubai spreads followed Brent spreads, trading between $3.10/bbl and $3.20/bbl. There was some trade buying of Q1'27 Brent/Dubai, trading at -$0.69/bbl and -$0.62/bbl.

VLSFO: It was another quiet afternoon; however, liquidity picked up in the window. Sing 0.5% cracks came off this afternoon, while Euro 0.5% remained resilient. Nov/Dec'26 came off from $33.50/mt to $32.00/mt in the early afternoon and traded at this level for the rest of the afternoon; Dec/Jan'27 traded at $28.00/mt in limited volume. Nov'26 Sing crack weakened further this afternoon, trading down from $25.50/mt at this morning's close to $23.95/bbl pre-window; during the window, it rallied back up to $24.50/bbl. Nov/Dec'26 Euro traded slightly higher this afternoon, from $13.50/mt to $15.00/mt pre-window; it then sold off to $14.00/mt post-window. Nov'26 Euro crack traded up from -$0.25/bbl to $0.30/bbl in the early afternoon; it then oscillated between here and $0.00/bbl before closing out the afternoon at -$0.05/bbl, 0.5 e/w came off around $7.00/mt dollars to $155.00/mt.

HSFO:380 complex weakened this afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 traded down from $45.00/mt to $41.50/mt in relatively low volume, while Dec/Jan'27 came off from $29.50/mt to $28.50/mt in the window. Nov'26 380 crack came under sell-side pressure on screen trading down from $5.70/bbl to $5.55/bbl in the window and then shed a further 55c post-window to $5.00/bbl. Barge complex remained thin this afternoon but was slightly better bid; Nov/Dec'26 traded up from $20.00/mt to $21.50//mt while Nov'26 Barge crack traded up from -$9.30/bbl to -$8.70/bbl; 380 e/w came off 6 dollars to $88.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw some selling in Dec/Jan'27, trading at $3.30/bbl, while front E/W also saw sell-side interest, trading from -$106.00/mt down to lows of -$112.00/mt and now at -$109.00/mt. Regrade saw buying in the deferred, with Q3'27 trading up at $1.75/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads continued stronger into the window, with Nov/Dec'26 from $40.00/mt up to highs of $45.00/mt, now at $43.00/mt, while Dec'26 cracks firmed to $77.70/bbl. European jet diffs rallied across the curve, with Nov'26 up to $161.00/mt and 2H 27 trading at $120.00/mt.

Gasoline sold off after the EIA stats at 15:30, which showed a 382kb build in gasoline stocks against an expected 1.7mb draw. Dec'26 RBBRs had traded 31.20–$31.50/bbl through early afternoon and were already easing to $30.70/bbl ahead of the number, before dropping to $29.03/bbl within twenty minutes of the release, recovering to $29.70/bbl by the end of the window. Jan'27 RBBRs followed, from $28.74/bbl to $27.22/bbl, closing the window at $27.53/bbl. Nov'26 arbs weakened with them, from 6.90c/gal early afternoon and 6.00c/gal before the stats to 5.20c/gal straight after, and traded 4.80c/gal at the end of the window despite real buying all the way down, with 4.50c/gal printing post window; Dec'26 arbs traded 12.85–13.00c/gal.

In the West, Nov'26 EBOB cracks traded $31.50/bbl early afternoon and $31.00/bbl just before the stats, then gapped to $29.90/bbl where real buyers stepped in, grinding back to $30.50/bbl in the window and trading $30.80/bbl end of window on selling from real players. There was real buying in Dec'26 cracks at $24.65/bbl end of window, while Q1'27 cracks saw real selling at $22.80/bbl. EBOB MOC was balanced to slightly bid. Nov/Dec'26 EBOB eased from $73.00/mt to $69.00/mt pre-window on real selling, recovering to $71.00/mt around the end of the window and $72.00/mt afterwards on real buying, while Dec/Jan'27 slipped from $38.25/mt to $35.25/mt, with real buying at $35.50/mt pre-window. Nov'26 gasnap fell from $241.00/mt to $230.00/mt after the stats, where real buyers stepped in, with real buying in Dec'26 gasnap at $193.00/mt at the end of the window.

The East was more resilient. Nov'26 E/W firmed from -$5.10/bbl to -$4.00/bbl as EBOB sold off, with selling from real players at -$4.00/bbl, and Q1'27 E/W traded -$4.70/bbl. Nov'26 92 cracks saw selling from real players from $26.10/bbl to $26.40/bbl, with real buying in Dec'26 cracks at $20.80/bbl. Nov'26 92 swaps eased from $125.20/bbl to $124.50/bbl on real buying, with Nov/Dec'26 92 trading 8.15–$8.30/bbl and $8.00/bbl in the window.

This afternoon, naphtha was firmer overall, with MOC balanced and front cracks strengthening through the window. NWE naphtha led the move, with Nov'26 cracks rising from -$4.35/bbl this morning to -$3.75/bbl post-window after being softer in the early afternoon; Q1'27 firmed to -$5.90/bbl and the Q1/Q2'27 roll to $2.13/bbl. Spreads also strengthened, with Nov/Dec'26 at $30.50/mt, Dec/Jan'27 at $18.75/mt and Bal Oct/Nov'26 at $34.00/mt. E/W stayed supported, with Nov'26 at $68.50/mt and Q1'27 up from $52.00/mt this morning to $53.00/mt, while the Nov/Dec'26 box eased to -$0.50/mt. MOPJ was thin but firmer, with Nov'26 cracks up to $3.90/bbl and Q1'27 to -$0.10/bbl; spreads were steady, with Nov/Dec'26 at $29.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 at $28.50/mt and Feb/Mar'27 at $26.75/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI was firm around $883.00/mt. Front month spreads were illiquid, with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading at $40.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 FEI trading at $34.00/mt. This was down slightly from the opening levels this morning of $43.00/mt and $36.00/mt, respectively. Nov'26 FEI/CP traded at $200.00/mt in Dec'26, down from $203.00/mt this morning. FEI/MOPJs were firm this afternoon, with Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ trading at -$50.00/mt, similar levels to this morning off the back of the sideways FEI trading. The arb rose during the window with Nov'26 LST/FEI trading at -$397.00/mt, up from the lows of -$407.00/mt this morning. The Q1'27 LST/FEI also traded at -$316.00/mt, which was firm against the printed levels this morning.

LST was up today: Nov'26 LST traded at 93.25c/gal towards the end of the European window, up from 92.00c/gal pre-window. Nov/Dec'26 LST was up slightly, trading at 1.50c/gal versus 1.375c/gal yesterday. Q1/Q2'27 LST also traded up at 7.25c/gal versus 7.125c/gal yesterday. Butane was also up in the US window this afternoon, jumping from printing 141.00c/gal pre-window to trading at 143.00c/gal in Nov'26 during the window. Cal27 Butane also traded at 110.75c/gal up from 110.00c/gal pre-window. There was also physical player buying of the Cal27 C4 ENT/MOPJ, which traded at -$237.00/mt. Nov'26 C4 ENT/C3 LST traded at 49.50c/gal this afternoon up from 48.50c/gal this morning. Butane spreads also rallied this afternoon with Nov/Dec'26 C4 ENT at 2.875c/gal up from 2.625c/gal pre window and Dec/Jan'27 up to 3.75c/gal from 3.50c/gal pre window.