Martha Dowding
Research Associate, Flux
Brent falls below $70.00/bbl
Iran-US nuclear negotiations, Venezuela to grant oil production blocks to Chevron; US approves limited resale of Venezuelan crude to Cuba
May'26 Brent Futures has been under pressure this morning, from a daily high of $70.95/bbl at 08:22 GMT to $69.85/bbl at the time of writing at 10:27 GMT.
Iran and the United States have begun a third round of indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman, with both sides reportedly showing openness to “new and creative ideas” to reach an agreement. Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi met US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to review Iran’s nuclear proposals, US responses, and possible guarantees for a deal. Analysts say both Tehran and Washington have strong incentives to avoid military escalation, despite continued pressure tactics from US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected terrorism accusations and described Iran as a long-standing victim of regional violence as talks continue. Venezuela plans to grant additional oil production and exploration blocks to Chevron Corporation as part of efforts supported by the Trump administration to rebuild the country’s weakened energy sector. The move could significantly increase Chevron’s crude output in Venezuela, where it already produces about 240-250 kb/d through joint ventures with state oil company PDVSA. Shell plc is considering selling its 16.67% stake, valued at about $24 billion, in Australia’s North West Shelf LNG Project, with reported interest from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Midocean Energy. The potential sale follows operational changes that would turn the project into a third-party tolling facility, making the arrangement less attractive for Shell. The United States has approved the limited resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba, easing earlier restrictions amid a severe fuel and humanitarian crisis on the island. The US Treasury said licenses will be granted only for transactions that support Cuba’s private sector or humanitarian needs, while sales benefiting the Cuban government, military, or intelligence services remain banned. The Apr/May'26 Brent spread dropped into contango at -1c/bbl at the time of writing. Apr/Oct is at $2.23/bbl.
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