Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent falls to $70.50/bbl
Brent falls to $70.50 and testing support levels, Russian and Iranian oil discounts deepening, US Warns Kyiv over Russian Oil Port Attack
After rising to the $71.40/bbl level shortly after market open, the May’26 Brent crude futures declined by nearly 50c this morning from $71 to $70.55/bbl by 17:40 SGT (09:40 GMT), testing yesterday’s support.
Looking at the weekly picture, prices are consolidating within a narrow $2 range and have fallen to its lower boundary. Any breakout above or below this channel could trigger increased volatility. In the news, Donald Trump condemned Iran’s “sinister ambitions” in his State of the Union address, with his comments coming just two days before critical talks between the two sides in Geneva. Russian and Iranian oil producers are offering deepening discounts as they compete for the same limited group of Chinese buyers after following India’s retreat from the former. According to traders, Russia’s Urals grade is selling at a $12 discount to Brent, compared with $10 last month. Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Tuesday that Kurdistan’s oil exports are ranging between 200-210kb/d as Iraq inches closer to meeting its export target of 3.5mb/d, currently over 3.4mb/d. The Trump administration plans to reassure energy companies that they can sell oil and fuel to private Cuban businesses, clarifying that its energy ban applies only to sales to the government, not to private businesses or individuals. Ukraine’s envoy to the US said the Trump administration protested its attack on an oil pipeline terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, where the US warned Ukraine to refrain from attacking US interests, after the affected US investments in Kazakhstan. Finally, the Apr/May and Apr/Oct Brent futures spreads are at $0.20/bbl and $2.62/bbl respectively.
Related News
Absolute Ship Show
See all the updates across the barrel, as well as six contracts to watch. ...
6 reports
Brent Declines to $70.71/bbl
OPEC+ weighs April output hike as Druzhba damage disrupts flows and Europe seeks alternative crude routes.
4 page report
Eastern Revival
C3 and FEI see strong buying on supply fears; freight rises pressure arbs as trade houses hedge East flows.
17 page report
Brent Falls Below $71/bbl
Brent dips as refinery maintenance, pipeline delays and rising exports reshape global crude flows.
4 page report