Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Inches Up to $96.96/bbl
Ukraine peace hopes rise; Russia boosts exports, ports reopen, tanker crosses Hormuz, Druzhba repairs advance, supply stabilises.
The Jun’26 Brent futures contract has inched up from $95.30/bbl at 13:30 BST to $96.96/bbl at 17:33 BST (time of writing).
In the news, Ukraine’s lead negotiator with Russia indicated that progress is being made towards a possible peace agreement with the Kremlin. He also remarked that the war's resolution might be reached fairly quickly. Further, Russia's crude oil exports from its main western ports rose in early April compared to March, despite increased drone attacks from Ukraine. Reuters sources report that Baltic ports Primorsk and Ust-Luga, along with the Black Sea port Novorossisk, collectively loaded about 2mb/d of crude oil in the first week of April, up from an average of 1.9mb/d in March. In related news, Novorossiysk has partially resumed oil and fuel loadings from its Sheskharis terminal on 10 Apr, following this week's suspension due to a drone attack. The Sheskharis oil terminal, with a capacity of approximately 700kb/d of crude oil, had halted operations on Monday after a Ukrainian drone attack ignited fires at a fuel terminal and some berths. Elsewhere, an empty supertanker flying the Russian flag has navigated through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, with Iran’s Kharg Island as its planned endpoint. The VLCC Arhimeda entered the Gulf late 08 Apr from the Strait of Hormuz. It is blacklisted by the US Treasury Department for its involvement in trading Iranian oil. In other news, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine will finish repairing the damaged Druzhba oil pipeline, which transports Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, by spring. The pipeline was previously damaged in late January, due to a Russian drone attack. Finally, the front-month (Jun/Jul’26) and 6-month (Jun/Dec’26) Brent futures spreads are at $5.26/bbl and $15.70/bbl, respectively.
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