Brent meets resistance above $105/bbl on comments that US will not strike Iran before midterms

Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall in the US northern Gulf Coast on 09 Oct, with estimates for its intensity broadly sitting between Category 1 and 2, although some forecasts are pointing towards a potential Category 3 storm. Across the world, on another Gulf, several explosions in Riyadh, with the Houthis claiming to have attacked the city's international airport for the second time this week, prompting over 300 flight cancellations today (up from 22 yesterday). Pakistan has reportedly confirmed its military personnel are deployed in Saudi Arabia under the newly activated Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Mecca Joint Defence Pact. Meanwhile, top officials from Moscow and Washington have reportedly held talks about bringing a US investor into the Nord Stream pipelines that delivered gas to Germany before Russia invaded Ukraine. However, a US official said to Reuters that a deal may be unlikely in the medium term due to obstacles. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.15/bbl and $12.70/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we continued to see Balmo Oct'26 DFL push higher, reaching highs of $18.00/bbl and Nov'26 DFL up to $6.25/bbl. Pre-window, we saw very strong roll buying, with a major paying $12.90/bbl for 19-23 Oct'26 3w in good size and 2-13 vs 16-30 Nov'26 bought up to $5.00/bbl. Today was the first day we saw no bids in the physical window, leaving the physical diff unchanged. In the paper window, we saw a trade buying 19-23 Oct'26 CFD at $17.00/bbl whilst a major offered down 12-16 Oct'26 CFD. Post-window, we saw Nov'26 DFL ease off from the highs.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5% spreads were less liquid this morning and traded at similar levels; Nov/Dec'26 traded between $29.50/mt and $30.00/mt with no real axe and Dec/Jan'27 traded at $28.50/mt consistently. Nov'26 Sing crack was offered down on screen from $23.90/bbl to $23.50/bbl, but was bid back up to $23.65/bbl during the window; Dec'26 Sing crack struggled for liquidity but ultimately traded down from $21.90/bbl.bbl to $21.65/bbl. Euro 0.5% spreads were illiquid once again, with Nov/Dec'26 trading up from $15.00/mt to $17.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 trading up 50c to $14.50/mt. Nov'26 Euro crack saw better volume; it initially traded down from $1.00/bbl to $0.50/bbl pre-window, it traded at this level in the window, and it bounced up to $0.60/bbl post-window.

In HSFO, the 380 complex was thinner this afternoon; 380 spreads came off from this morning's highs with Nov/Dec'26 trading between $41.00/mt and $41.75/mt pre-window. During the window, it was bid back up to $42.50/mt before coming back off to $41.75/mt post-window; Dec/Jan'27 traded at $32.35/mt in the window. Nov'26 380 crack was offered down on screen from $5.50/bbl to $5.25/bbl pre-window; more sell-side interest emerged in the window, and it was offered down to $4.80/bbl, it has rallied back up to $5.35/bbl since. Nov/Dec'26 Barge continued to strengthen into the early afternoon, trading up another dollar to $26.00/mt before coming off aggressively in the window to $23.00/mt; it has slipped to $22.00/mt. Liquidity has been very thin on the Barge spreads this afternoon. Nov'26 Barge crack saw better liquidity, getting as high as -$7.00/bbl in the early afternoon before real selling came in and drove it down to -$8.00/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw strong selling in the front, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $5.20/bbl down to $4.40/bbl. E/W also saw selling down the curve, Nov'26 hit from -$106.00/mt down to -$130.00/mt, while Q1'27 traded down to -$96.00/mt. Regrade rolls moved weaker in the front, with Nov/Dec'26 hit down to -$1.00/bbl as Nov/Mar'27 kero saw some buying at $19.25/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads saw strength, with Oct/Nov'26 rallying from $60.00/mt up to $73.50/mt, while Dec'26 cracks rallied from $80.40/bbl to $82.20/bbl. European jet diffs saw selling in the prompt, trading from $173.00/mt down to $157.00/mt in Nov'26.

Gasoline was mixed this afternoon, with stronger RBBRs lifting the West while the East sold off sharply. Dec'26 RBBRs rallied from $28.24/bbl to $29.52/bbl at the start of the window, closing it at $29.35/bbl. Nov'26 arbs were bid up with them despite selling from real players at 6.60c/gal–6.70c/gal, and there was real buying in Q1'27 arbs at 29.30c/gal pre-window. Nov'26 EBOB cracks eased at the US open, with real buying at $29.20/bbl pre-window, and traded at $29.40/bbl at the end of the window on selling from real players. Q1'27 cracks saw selling from real players from $22.20/bbl to $22.35/bbl. EBOB MOC was bid. Nov/Dec'26 EBOB firmed from $69.00/mt to $69.50/mt at the end of the window, and Dec/Jan'27 to $35.50/mt despite selling from real players. The East was weaker. Nov'26 92 cracks sold off from $27.80/bbl early afternoon to $23.90/bbl pre-window, where real buyers stepped in and traded $24.40/bbl in the window. 92 Nov/Dec'26 came off from $9.10/bbl to $7.40/bbl on selling from real players all the way down, and Dec/Jan'27 to $4.00/bbl. Nov'26 E/W sold off despite buying from -$5.00/bbl to -$5.15/bbl pre-window.

This afternoon, naphtha was strong, with MOC better bid and the complex strengthening as Brent moved higher. NWE naphtha firmed through the window, with Nov'26 cracks ending at -$3.25/bbl after trading around -$3.50/bbl pre-window, while Q1'27 finished at -$5.80/bbl and the Q1/Q2'27 roll at $2.25/bbl; spreads strengthened, with Nov/Dec'26 at $37.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $22.75/mt. E/W saw the largest move, with Nov'26 rising from $72.50/mt this morning to $80.00/mt post-window and Q1'27 from $55.00/mt to $59.50/mt, while the Dec/Jan'27 + Q1/2 box reached $11.00/mt and $15.00/mt, respectively. MOPJ was firmer but thin, with Nov'26 cracks up from around $4.00/bbl this morning to $5.60/bbl post-window, Cal 27’ at -$3.10/bbl and the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll at $1.45/bbl; Nov/Dec'26 spreads ended at $38.50/mt, with the rest of the curve illiquid.

It was a busy afternoon in NGLs as FEI continued to rise off a strong crude. Nov/Dec'26 FEI traded at $45.00/mt up from $43.00/mt at the morning close, and Dec/Jan'27 FEI held at $38.00/mt up from $34.00/mt overnight but firm against the $38.50/mt traded levels in the morning window. Dec'26 FEI/CP traded up at $210.00/mt from $203.00/mt at midday off the continued FEI strength. FEI/MOPJs were firm, trading again at -$49.00/mt in Q1'27 this afternoon. Pronaps were active this afternoon, with trade houses buying Q1'27 Pronap at -$220.00/mt and -$219.00/mt as the afternoon went on. Alongside, Q1'27 E/W was also firm at $131.00/mt as both NWE and FEI flat prices were strong. The arb was firm this afternoon, with the Nov'26 Arb trading at -$415.00/mt. This was a slight recovery from the lows of -$417.00/mt this morning.

LST flat price also rallied this afternoon, trading at 98.25c/gal and 98.625c/gal this afternoon, breaking new highs from 94.50c/gal pre-window. Nov/Dec'26 LST traded at 1.625c/gal this afternoon, up from 1.50c/gal yesterday, and Dec/Jan'27 LST traded at 2.375c/gal in size, up 0.50c/gal from yesterday’s levels. Q1/Q2'27 LST traded at 8.25c/gal, up 1.00c/gal from 7.25c/gal yesterday. Butane was also very strong today, with Nov/Dec'26 C4ENT trading at 3.375c/gal, up from 3.25c/gal yesterday. C4 ENT strengthened against propane, with C4 ENT/C3 LST printing at 50.875c/gal, up from the 49.50c/gal traded level yesterday.