Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Rebounds Above $100.00/bbl
Brent rebounds above $100/bbl as hopes of Hormuz truce offset Iran sanctions and unresolved nuclear tensions
The Jul’26 Brent futures contract dropped below the hallowed $100/bbl level this afternoon to a low of $96.15/bbl at 13:50 BST. Prices briefly hovered between $96 and $98.50/bbl afterwards, but then surged back above $100/bbl at 17:15 BST. We saw resistance at $100.50/bbl and briefly reverted below $100/bbl, but now stand at $100.40/bbl at the time of writing (17:48 BST).
The market is increasingly hopeful that we're nearing the end of the war, although we have yet to see a signed agreement from both sides. Reuters' sources reported that the latest effort was aimed at a temporary MOU to halt the war and allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while they discuss a fuller deal. The proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement. Still, prices may continue to see a floor amid wider gaps in negotiations over disputes such as those linked to Iran's nuclear programme. Further support comes from the US' OFAC, which placed sanctions on Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, Iraq's Deputy Oil Minister, for allegedly abusing his position to facilitate the diversion of oil to be sold for the benefit of the Iranian regime and its proxy militias in Iraq. The sanctions were extended to three senior leaders of Iran-aligned terrorist militias Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent stating that "like a rogue gang, the Iranian regime is pillaging resources that rightfully belong to the Iraqi people". Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jul/Aug) and 6-month (Jul/Jan'27) Brent futures spreads are at $4.16/bbl and $17.66/bbl, respectively.
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