Brent recovers from below $100/bbl, UKMTO reports attack on tanker transiting outbound Hormuz

In the news, Russia's Volgograd refinery (280kb/d) reportedly halted its crude processing on 02 Oct, while Russia has reported that it hit a tanker at Ukraine's Pivdennyi Port. Meanwhile, UKMTO reported that an oil tanker transiting outbound from the Strait of Hormuz on 05 Oct was struck by an unknown projectile. 12mb/d of crude oil and 2mb/d of refined products have reportedly left the Middle East on tankers in the past 7-10 days, according to Vitol CEO Russell Hardy. Meanwhile, the US EIA has raised its oil price forecast for 2026 and 2027, now expecting Brent futures to average at $105/bbl in Q4'26 (+$14/bbl above its previous forecast) and $84/bbl in 2027 (+$10/bbl up from its previous forecast). The International Energy Agency will meet next week to flesh out the details of the reported diesel stock release agreed to by the Group of Seven major economies on 02 Oct. The agreement said the countries will release 100mb of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $2.89/bbl and $11.64/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we saw more roll selling pre-window before some better buying emerged in the window, with Vitol bidding cargos again. Pre-window, we saw selling of back-end Oct'26 into Nov'26 rolls, with selling of 26-30 Cal Nov'26 and 19-23 Oct vs Cal Nov'26 down to $7.60/bbl from multiple sellers. We also saw some selling in prompt Oct'26 structure, with sell-side interest in 6-19 Oct'26 vs Cal Oct'26 at $3.75/bbl. In the physical window, Vitol bid cargos, while BP bid a Midland cargo today, pushing up the implied diff again. In the paper window, we saw buying of CFDs again from paper, with 19-23 Oct'26 CFD trading up to $9.47/bbl before market makers started to hit down. We also saw selling of 26-30 Oct'26 1w and 23-29 Oct'26 vs Dec'26 ICE. However, there was a size buyer of Cal Nov'26 vs 23-27 Nov'26 lifting $2.00/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, we continued to trade range-bound. There was some fund and major buying of the Dec'26 Brent/Dubai around -$0.54/bbl. The Nov'26 Brent/Dubai traded between -$1.40/bbl and -$1.05/bbl, and was well offered on screen. The Dubai spreads recovered most of their morning's decline, trading up from $2.80/bbl to $3.15/bbl in the Nov/Dec'26. The Balmo Dubai spread continued to be well offered, trading at $6.50/bbl.

VLSFO: After a very strong morning, Sing 0.5% came slightly lower this afternoon, while Euro 0.5% spreads were relatively stable and the crack traded higher. Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded down from $34.75/mt to $33.75/mt in the early afternoon; it found support at this level and traded here for the rest of the afternoon. In the window, Dec/Jan'27 was quite illiquid but traded up 50c to $28.50/mt pre-window. Nov'26 Sing crack was trading at $26.60/bbl in the early afternoon; it then came under sell-side pressure on screen and was offered down to $26.05/bbl. It traded at $26.10/bbl in the window. Dec'26 crack traded down from $23.20/bbl to $22.90/bbl. Euro 0.5 spreads were quite resilient this afternoon, trading at $12.75/mt for most of the afternoon before trading up to $13.00/mt in the lead-up to the window; Dec/Jan'27 traded up from $9.00/mt to $9.25/mt. Nov'26 Euro crack was choppy this afternoon; it traded up to 40c to $0.00/bbl in the early afternoon and then was offered down on screen to -$0.35/bbl just before the window; it has been bid back up to $0.00/bbl post window. As a result, this and the Sing crack weakening 0.5 E/W has come off around 7 dollars to $165.50/mt.

HSFO: 380 complex continued to rally into the afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 380 seemed a little weaker in the early afternoon trading down to $40.50/mt, however fresh buying came in around 2 pm and the spread rallied with virtually no resistance up to $42.50/mt pre window and then a further 75c to $43.25/mt post window, Dec/Jan'27 did not see much volume yet still traded up 2 dollars to $28.00/mt. Nov'26 380 crack also weakened in the early afternoon from $5.00/bbl to $4.50/bbl, but rallied with he same wave of buying as the prompt spread up to $5.50/bbl pre-window; it last traded at this level. Dec'26 380 crack was quite illiquid but last traded at $0.65/bbl. Barge complex continued to be thin; Nov/Dec'26 saw the best volume, trading up from $17.00/mt to $18.00/mt pre-window and then rallying to $19.00/mt in the window; it was bid up to $19.50/mt post-window. Nov'26 Barge crack saw buy-side interest on screen and traded up from -$9.60/bbl to -$9.10/bbl over the course of the afternoon. Nov'26 380 E/W was implied as high as $94.50/mt this afternoon but has come off slightly to $92.75/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed overall, with Nov/Dec trading from $4.15/bbl down to $4.05/bbl on lower ICE gasoil. The gasoil E/W saw selling in Nov Dec and Q1, with Nov E/W hit from -$93/mt down to -$97/mt. Regrade rolls saw some selling in Dec/Jan, trading at -$0.60/bbl, while Oct regrade saw buying up to $2.50/bbl lifted.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed post-window, with Nov/Dec moving from lows of $36/mt up to $39.00/mt last, while Dec cracks rallied from $70/bbl up to $72/bbl. European jet diffs were well bid in the front, with Nov trading up to $145/mt, and crack buying seen there.

This afternoon in gasoline, EBOB was the weak spot, with EBOB MOC well offered through the window and the arbs choppy. Nov'26 arbs swung between 2.60c/gal and 4.20c/gal, gapping from 4.10c/gal to 3.00c/gal within minutes mid-afternoon, before most of the recovery came at the US open, from 3.10c/gal to 4.00c/gal at the end of the window. The Nov/Dec'26 arb strengthened to -7.78c/gal, while Q1'27 arbs held at 25.33c/gal. Dec'26 RBBRs came off highs of $30.40/bbl to $28.96/bbl. With the MOC offered, Nov'26 EBOB cracks softened from $31.00/bbl to $30.00/bbl into the end of the window. Nov/Dec'26 eased from $69.75/mt to $68.00/mt, and the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll slipped to $5.98/bbl, while Q1'27 cracks held at $21.90/bbl. The East was more resilient. Nov'26 E/W firmed from -$5.50/bbl to -$4.80/bbl into the end of the window as EBOB weakened, with Q1'27 E/W holding at -$5.05/bbl.

This afternoon, naphtha was choppy and illiquid, with MOC slightly better bid. MOPJ cracks strengthened, with Nov'26 up from $2.95/bbl this morning to $3.30/bbl post-window, while Cal 27 traded at -$3.95/bbl; spreads were quiet, with Nov/Dec'26 at $27.50/mt after reaching $28.00/mt briefly, and Dec/Jan'27 at $26.50/mt. E/W stayed supported in the back, with Nov'26 ending at $68.00/mt after reaching $68.50/mt pre-window, while Q1'27 firmed from $50.00/mt to $51.50/mt, Cal 28 traded at $25.00/mt, and Q1/2 box priced up to $12.50/mt. NWE naphtha front cracks reversed after an early bid: Nov'26 rose to -$4.10/bbl pre-window before falling to -$4.35/bbl post-window, while Q1'27 ended at -$6.10/bbl and Cal 27 at -$8.10/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 crack roll eased to $0.75/bbl from $1.05/bbl earlier, whilst Q1/Q2'27 was firm at $1.95/bbl and Cal/Cal 28’ traded at $2.00/bbl; spreads were largely illiquid aside from Nov/Jan'27 at $44.00/mt, although Jan/Dec'26 traded at $139.00/mt pre-window.

This afternoon in NGLs, Nov/Dec FEI traded up slightly at $41/mt, up from trading at $39.5/mt in the morning window. Nov FEI recovered slightly from lows of $858/mt to trade at $867.5/mt near the end of the window. Q1 FEI also rose, trading at $753/mt up to $755/mt by the end of the window. However, off the back of a stronger MOPJ, Nov FEI/MOPJ fell from -$16/mt to -$19/mt. Q1 FEI/MOPJ also traded at -$49/mt before printing down to -$51/mt. There was also Chinese selling of Dec/Jan FEI/MOPJ box trading at $8/mt.

The Arb sold off this afternoon off the firm FEI flat price, with Nov LST/FEI trading down at -$397/mt, back down to levels seen before the morning window. LST was also weaker, with Nov LST trading at 91.25c/gal down from 92c/gal this morning. Nov/Dec LST stayed firm at 1.375c/gal while Q1/Q2 27 LST traded at 7.125c/gal across the window.

In Butane, C4 ENT drifted downwards, printing at 139.50c/gal at the open and closing at 1.39c/gal. There was Cal 27 C4 ENT/MOPJ buying interest from physical players, trading at -$233/mt. Cal27 C4 ENT also traded outright at 109c/gal multiple times throughout the window. Nov/Dec C4 ENT traded at 2.875c/gal, up slightly from printing 2.625c/gal pre-window.