Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Recovers to $109.61/bbl
US may release more SPR oil; output boost eyed; OPEC+ steady post-UAE exit; Repsol lifts jet fuel output.
The Jul’26 Brent futures contract briefly dipped this afternoon to $107.16/bbl at 12:29 BST, before rising once again to $109.61/bbl at 16:41 BST (time of writing). As we head into expiry, the current M1 (Jun’26) Brent futures contract initially broke $120/bbl for the first time since 2022, before a drastic sell-off to $114.08/bbl.
In the news, the Trump Administration is reportedly planning to draw up to 92.5mb of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to calm oil markets. Earlier, the US agreed to loan 172mb from the SPR as part of a deal with over 30 IEA member countries to release about 400mb. So far, the US has offered 126mb in three batches, but oil companies have taken less than 80mb, about 63% of what was offered. The new offer, if taken up only by oil companies, would fulfil the nation’s goal of lending 172mb. In related news, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has said that the US is currently negotiating with oil companies and is contemplating measures to boost domestic production "really soon" to mitigate the impact of the Iran conflict on energy supplies. No further details were given. In Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that OPEC+ would maintain their cooperation despite the United Arab Emirates' departure. He added that he does not anticipate an oil price war breaking out after the UAE's exit, given the ongoing global oil deficit. In other news, Repsol aims to increase jet fuel production at its five Spanish refineries by up to 20% to compensate for supply disruptions due to the Iran conflict, as its Q1 adjusted net profit jumped approximately 57%, driven by strong refining margins. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jul/Aug and Jul/Jan Brent futures spreads are at $7.06/bbl and $24.25/bbl, respectively.
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