Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Rises Above $95/bbl
Brent rises above $95 as Hormuz flows resume, while China draws inventories and Venezuela boosts exports.
The Aug’26 Brent futures contract has climbed from $93.56/bbl at 13:20 BST to $95.48/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing).
In the news, two oil tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz, and an LNG carrier has loaded cargo in the United Arab Emirates. The Aframax tanker Cy Victorious, carrying over 508kb of high-sulphur fuel oil, left the strait on 30 May, according to Kpler and LSEG data. It last loaded at Iraq's Khor al Zubair port in early April and is expected to arrive in Malaysia in mid-June. Additionally, the Long-Range 2 tanker Sti Elysees, which loaded clean products from Kuwait in late February, exited the strait on 29 May, though its destination remains unknown. In China, the nation is expected to draw even more on its record crude oil inventories as refiners reduce imports and continue output restrictions to limit refining losses amid weak fuel demand. Sluggish demand has partly suppressed global oil prices, which have dropped 19% in May despite a strained ceasefire between the US and Iran. In Venezuela, oil exports rose slightly to 1.25mb/d in May, marking the third month of growth, supported by more cargoes to the US, India, and Europe, according to shipping data released on Monday. The oil ministry predicts crude production will reach 1.4mb/d by the end of the year, representing a 22% rise from the 1.1mb/d in late 2025. This level of output has not been observed since US energy sanctions were initially imposed in 2019. In other news, local authorities reported on Tuesday that a fire at Russia's Ilsky oil refinery in the southern Krasnodar region was extinguished following an overnight Ukrainian drone attack. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $2.50/bbl and $11.25/bbl, respectively.
Related News
Grinding Lower
Physical weakness, a wider downtrend, but July paper buying
Du-buy Partials
Going into pricing, the physical support coincided with sudden strength in prompt Dubai spreads..
Slow Motion
Brent, spreads and cracks stay mostly bearish; support levels under pressure as momentum softens. Downside favoured, except gasoline E/W.
9 page report
Brent softens amid conflicting headlines
The drop in prices came with US President Donald Trump saying talks with Iran were ongoing. President Trump also said, in a Truth Social...
4 page report