Brent Rises as Houthis Claim New Attack in Red Sea

In the news, the Houthis have claimed an attack on a Saudi oil tanker off the coast of Yanbu, denting hopes of a broader de-escalation in the Iran war and a potential return of disrupted shipping flows. However, Tehran denied that peace talks were underway, contradicting earlier comments from US President Donald Trump. In India, refiners continue to secure alternative crude supplies, with Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals purchasing 1mb of Oman crude via tender, according to Reuters sources. The cargo was bought at around a $3/bbl premium to Dated Brent, with Mitsui & Co Energy Trading Singapore reportedly the seller. Separately, Indian Oil Corp (IOC) bought 4mb of West African crude, including Angolan Nemba, Saxi Batuque and Clov, alongside Congo’s Djeno crude from Chevron. In China, the nation has further eased refined fuel export restrictions for a second consecutive month in August, allowing refiners to ship 2.7Mmt of products excluding Hong Kong and Macau, according to Reuters sources. The move comes after Beijing cut exports from March to June to protect domestic supplies during the Iran war, before gradually reopening flows following the US-Iran interim peace deal. Including Hong Kong shipments and international jet fuel demand, August gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports are estimated at 3.6–3.7Mmt, above 2025 monthly averages and ahead of July planned exports. Elsewhere, Belarus fuel exports to Russia hit a record high in July as refinery outages caused by sustained Ukrainian drone strikes deepened domestic shortages. Gasoline shipments rose 13% m/m to 212Kmt, while diesel deliveries doubled to 162Kmt. The increase comes as Russian gasoline output fell to around 65% of seasonal demand levels, with diesel production only roughly matching domestic consumption. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr’27) Brent futures spreads are at $1.74/bbl and $5.88/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai continued to be very quiet, we traded higher in the Sep Brent/Dubai on very thin volumes, despite buying interest in the Sep/Oct Dubai spread and products selling of the Q1 Brent/Dubai. The Sep Brent/Dubai moved up from $5.40/bbl to $5.80/bbl. The Q1 continued to be well offered by products, trading between $3.30/bbl to $3.10/bbl. The boxes all moved higher, retracing this morning's move lower, as the overall long strip buying of Dubai spreads eased off this afternoon. The Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box traded up from $0.37/bbl to $0.60/bbl.

This afternoon in Dated we initially saw continued balmo DFL strength with strong bids on screen before spreads came off and some selling came in. Pre-window we saw buying of 11-17 Sep vs Cal Sep at -$0.02/bbl and selling of 7-11 Sep vs Cal Sep down to $0.45/bbl. In the paper window we saw a trade and major lifting CFDs with 17-21 Aug CFD lifted up to $3.45/bbl and 10-14 Aug CFD up to $5.00/bbl. Post window saw buying of bal Aug vs 24-28 Aug at $1.80/bbl.

In HSFO, 380 was bid this afternoon. Chinese arbers were buying 380 flat price, which supported the entire 380 complex. The 380 crack traded up from around -$2.50/bbl to -$2.00/bbl on the back of this, while Sep/Oct traded up to $26.50/mt. It was a quiet afternoon in barges, the Sep crack remained range bound trading between -$9.15/bbl and -$9.05/bbl, while the Sep/Oct spread traded around $10.50/mt.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5 spreads were better offered this afternoon on lower Brent spreads, trading down to $36.00/mt. Cracks saw mixed interest but came under pressure from Chinese selling Oct Sing 0.5 trading down to $19.60/bbl. Euro 0.5 spreads saw real selling of Sep/Oct down $25.00/mt, Euro cracks remained rangebound trading around $8.20/bbl

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw selling in Sep/Oct, trading from $6/bbl down to $5.75/bbl, while Sep E/W was well supported, trading up to -$69.25/mt post window. Regrade saw selling in Q4, hit in size at $1.75/bbl, while front regrade remained at -$0.55/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed throughout the afternoon, with Aug/Sep trading from $52/mt up to $59/mt, while front cracks rallied to $63.90/mt. European jet diffs traded lower into Q4, with Sep down to $76/mt while Oct was down to $93.50/mt. Both heating oil spreads and HOGOs remained rangebound, with the Sep HOGO swap around 27.7c/gal.

Gasoline was bid this afternoon, as RBBRs rallied over a dollar after the stats report. E/W weakened as EBOB went bid, with Sep moving from -$10.30/bbl to -$11/bbl, and EBOB Sep cracks reached $27/bbl in the window. EBOB spreads also firmed, with Sep/Oct back up to around $73.50/mt. Arbs were rangebound at $11.50 - 12.5c/gal, while 92 spreads were well bid at the lows due to profit-taking, with Sep/Oct holding around $3.10/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha, MOC better offered with Europe Sep crack trading down to lows of -$5.60/bbl but recovering slightly during window, closing -$5.40/bbl end of Europe window. Buyer of Oct/Nov naphtha this afternoon at $13/mt for decent size with scale-back buying in the Sep/Oct napthah crack roll at $0.45/bbl, $0.40/bbl – trading at lows of $0.35/bbl. Deffered cracks were better offered, seeing selling in the Cal crack at -$8.50/bbl with Q2/Q3'27 getting hit at $0.35/bbl.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads were initially better offered, with Sep/Oct trading at $18/mt and Oct/Nov at $8/mt. There was also some deferred Jan/Feb FEI interest, trading at $15/mt. Come the end of the afternoon, FEI caught a bid and spreads strengthened slightly, with Sep/Oct up to $19/mt. Sep LST/FEI traded up to -$268/mt as FEI was weaker, but softened to eventually close the afternoon at -$270/mt. There was some Q4 LST/FEI selling at -$237/mt and Q1 was sold at -$198/mt. FEI/MOPJs had selling in Q4 again, today at -$57/mt and -$56/mt. Deferred LST spreads had some good buying today, with Q1/2'27 trading at 4.625c/gal, and Dec'26/ Feb'27 was lifted at -0.125c/gal. In butane, similar to yesterday it was relatively quiet with some mixed flat price interest in the front, and C4/C3 had selling in Q1'27 at 23c/gal and 22.875c/gal.