Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Softens to $81.02/bbl
US-Iran war, QatarEnergy shuts down liquefaction facility, German subsidiary of Rosneft gets US sanction exemption
The May’26 Brent Futures contract fell to $80.36/bbl at 13:51 GMT, before rallying to $82:08 at 14:06 GMT. Prices have since softened to $81.02/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, the US–Iran war escalated after a US submarine strike hit an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, deepening a crisis that has frozen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for five days. Around 200 vessels remain anchored near Gulf producers, while others are stranded outside the chokepoint, disrupting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. US President Donald Trump pledged naval escorts and insurance for energy shipments. Asian refiners face shortages, issuing force majeure notices and seeking alternative supplies. In other news, QatarEnergy will fully shut down gas liquefaction on 4 March and is unlikely to resume normal LNG production and exports for at least a month, according to sources familiar with the matter. QatarEnergy has already halted output and declared force majeure on shipments. Once the Ras Laffan plant shuts, it is expected to take at least two weeks to restart liquefaction and another two weeks to return to full capacity. The US government is set to indefinitely exempt the German subsidiary of Rosneft from sanctions, according to Bloomberg News. Germany placed Rosneft’s local assets under trusteeship in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany’s economy ministry said it is in constructive talks with US authorities to extend the exemption. A continued waiver would help prevent disruptions to German refining operations. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month May/Jun’26 spread is at $3.17/bbl and the six-month May/Nov’26 spread is at $9.75/bbl.
Related News
Mission Impassable
See all the updates across the barrel and a half dozen contracts to watch in our six reports.
6 reports
Brent Bounces Back to $83.01/bbl
Iran proposes end of war, Aramco refinery hit by projectile, Russia and Hungary to discuss over Druzhba pipeline
4 page report
Physical Goes Negative
Forties selling weighs on Dated; Iran strikes lift Brent futures, widening gap between paper strength and weak physical.
Brent Bounces Back to $82.97/bbl
US considers oil tanker support in Middle East, Russia unable to benefit from oil price surge, Aramco seeks to export oil via Red Sea
4 page report